The rest in the trade of war is deceptive

The US President Donald Trump expressed: trade war with China is a solution, if you Believe the latest pronouncements from the US government. At the same time, Americans are moving the scheduled ceremonial signing of a Convention by Donald Trump and the Chinese head of state Xi Jinping always more to the rear.

Trump makes on optimism, because he needs for the forthcoming election campaign a success message. But also, because of the Failure of the negotiations would bear the burden of the important stock prices, after rising since the beginning of the year. In addition, the conflict with China, the US has brought the economy, according to studies, costs in the amount of tens of billions of dollars. Has suffered, especially the US agriculture, but also companies that have outsourced part of their production to China and from there between the products.

postponement at the last Moment

In the summer of 2018 Donald Trump duties of 10 percent imposed on imports from China in the amount of 250 billion dollars – and, hence, Around half of all imports from China. As of January 2019, the tariff burden is expected to increase to 25 percent, and later all imports from China. The Chinese responded with their own tariff surcharges on U.S. products. In December, Xi Jinping and Trump have a "ceasefire" and negotiations, agreed. Initially, Trump has given the Chinese an Ultimatum of up to March. This period of time he has extended and justified with the progress in the negotiations.

reports from US media, based on information from the U.S. government, and posts on blogs to show what the negotiations revolve currently and what the future roadmap looks like. After the discussions so far have been primarily Video-led, to Robert Lighthizer, the negotiators from the United States travel, together with Finance Minister Steven Mnuchin next week in the Chinese capital, Beijing, to clean up the last open points. A week later, then fly to China's negotiation leader and Vice-Premier Liu He to Washington.

after these Meetings, a Deal that required the drawing up and legal examination of the documents again in a few weeks. At the end of may or beginning of June, it will then be used in accordance with the current performances of the US government for the signing ceremony between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

The greatest obstacle of all was the last, the question of how an agreement can be enforced. What good is it if the Chinese commit to steal any intellectual property of the Americans more if you do it then? The preferred solution of the United States was that the Americans can unilaterally reintroduce customs duties. On the other hand have resisted the Chinese, and secured also the possibility of counter-measures. The Problem with this agreement is, according to observers, the fact that no real peace and stability, will come in trade relations, because at any time, with protectionist measures is to be expected.

No stable solution

What are the tariffs should be lowered and how far, is also not yet been clarified completely. Therefore, it remains possible that, ultimately, only back to the state from the time before the trade war – supplemented by concessions made by the Chinese in the protection of intellectual property. This is not expected to the Chinese today, however, is particularly difficult, because the country is now interested himself more and more to this protection, as the connoisseurs of the country write.

An agreement there should be also the issue of currency manipulation. China should be ready to commit and as a result, Mexico and Canada, to take no active measures to weaken its own currency to give its products a competitive advantage over those from the United States. However, China is busy in 2014, anyway, a devaluation of the own currency resist.

here, Too, doubts about the sustainability of such an Agreement. So, it is conceivable that the Dollar will increase without the influence of the Chinese against most other currencies. China would seek under all circumstances to prevent a devaluation of the US currency, it would damage its global competitiveness, to such an extent that it is here to compete.

trump's threat to Europe

A long-term stability of trade relations between the United States and China could remain due to the fact threatened that the Americans will achieve their declared main goal: a more balanced trade balance. Apparently, will commit China to massive shopping in the United States – primarily from the agricultural sector. But as long as Americans spend more, than, exceed their imports and exports. However, then other surplus countries could find themselves increasingly in the focus.

the focus is on the Europeans. And here is the fronts have hardened recently in the light of the dispute over subsidies for aircraft manufacturers Boeing and Airbus already. In the room also Trumps the threat to charge from the middle of may, car imports from Europe, with massive duties.

(editing Tamedia)

Created: 22.04.2019, 22:33 PM