Venezuela is holding its breath. The oppositional interim President Juan Guaidó has announced today to Caracas to return, and to celebrate his return, he has called for 16 p.m. Central European time in the capital to a big rally.
Ten days ago, since Guaidó has left the country, the delivery of relief supplies via the Colombian coordinate-Venezuelan border, a Plan that failed due to the military Superiority of the socialist government of Nicolás Maduro. And to promote in Colombia, Brazil, Argentina, Peru, and Ecuador to support.
The company was risky, because the Venezuelan Supreme court, that's long been one of Maduro's henchmen go to waste, had forbidden the opposition to travel abroad. The conflict in Venezuela now controls to a new climax.
Maduro has threatened, Guaidó'm going to have to take "judicial accountability", in case he return. Guaidó said yesterday in a video recording that was filmed at an unknown location: "If the Regime tried to kidnap me, we have made it clear which steps to follow. It needs to give demonstrations, and there are clear instructions to our international partners." As the instructions are carefully, said Guaidó. His arrest, however, would be "the last mistake you commit".
the majority of The army supports Maduro
Juan Guaidó is in a terrible position. When he was on 23. January office as interim President began, was the hope that the would be considered and determined-looking young politician, thanks to international support, what to defeat Venezuela's absent fail are founded upon the Opposition for the last twenty years: The so-called Chavism, to end the disastrous Experiment called "Bolivarian Revolution".
The expectation was not fulfilled. It Guaidó tried in vain to force the delivery of relief goods from abroad, in the hope that soldiers and officers would turn away from solidarity with the starving people in the crowds of Maduro. Also, this expectation remained unfulfilled. So far, about 700 members of the army are deserted, but this is not enough in the face of a troops strength of a total of 250'000 Uniformed far to escape to Maduro, the military Power – especially since this is also based on para-military gangs, the infamous "colectivos".
What has already been demonstrated during the mass surveys in the years 2014 and 2017, is confirmed again: The Regime in Caracas is much more resilient than one would think possible. To a large extent, from high-level military power clique, which Maduro's predecessor, Hugo Chávez gathered around, afraid of such wealth and privilege that the predicted internal decay of the government has so far failed to materialize.
in Addition, many high-ranking officials and the military operate according to American investigators, drug trafficking, money laundering, weapons smuggling and other criminal activities, which is why you need to anticipate to a fall of the regime in order to end up in prison. What Maduro's power of resistance and strengthens in addition, the financial support of China and Russia. And the strong presence of Cuban intelligence officials and military consultants, in the defense of opposition activities with decades of experience.
Maduro was risking a lot
With his journey through Latin American capitals Guaidó wanted the international Alliance against Nicolás Maduro's strengths. According to the Spanish newspaper "El País", who has spoken with several opposition members of Parliament and advisers to the interim President, tried to Guaidó to create a counter-weight to the determination of the Trump Administration for Maduro's overthrow. Once the interim President by look left to endorse in the extreme case, a military Intervention of the United States, the statement call later.
he was not a very good figure. The Latin American governments that support Guaidó, reject U.S. military intervention, and do the same, according to "El País", the most Familiar. The American government sees it as an Option that does not want to exclude.
If Maduro makes his adversary arrested today, he risks a lot: That that part of the international community, which considers him a dictator, exacerbated the diplomatic and economic sanctions. Within the Venezuelan Opposition and the hard-liners in Washington, the Calls for a military strike super power loud. And that it's coming across the country again to mass protests and bloody riots.
If Maduro makes the opposition, however, unmolested return and allows him to today's rally to occur, he loses the face. A third possibility would be to refuse him under a legal pretext for the entry – in the hope that the momentum of the Opposition would weaken without their leader. It would be those tactics implemented by the Maduro so far, always successfully: time to win. The storm pass by. Wait until his opponents are divided. (Editorial Tamedia)
Created: 04.03.2019, 11:09 PM