Pension reform: three out of four French people could sign for a shared initiative referendum

The next step? While the mobilizations in the street are running out of steam, the opponents of the pension reform are counting on the referendum of shared initiative to make the government give up. Filed by 252 parliamentarians, the referendum bill, which must above all be validated on Friday by the Constitutional Council, will then have to collect 4.8 million signatures - or a tenth of the electorate - for nine months. Unheard of so far. However, according to the Odoxa-Backbone Consulting survey, carried out for Le Figaro, 74% of French people say they would sign "certainly" or "probably".

Even more evocative: if we retain only 50% to 100% of French people saying they are "certain" to sign, the number of signatures would already amount to between 9 and 18 million. Or a level well above the required threshold. Moreover, if the Elders validate the text of the shared initiative referendum, 82% of French people expect the government to immediately suspend the application of the reform, pending the possible referendum.

In reality, the French hope above all that the Constitutional Council will "censure" the reform on Friday. They were 75% to wish it, according to another survey published last week. If the Elders choose to invalidate the reform, 74% of French people consider that the Prime Minister, Élisabeth Borne, will have to resign. Even if they validate the text, 61% of French people believe that the movement should not stop.

It should also be noted that, in a context of mistrust against the institutions, the French still keep a little hope in the Constitutional Council. They are nearly one in two (48%) to have “confidence in him to make impartial decisions”.