Monday morning, Gabriel Attal will once again be at the podium of the National Assembly. After his general policy declaration last Tuesday, during which he tried to set his course for the months to come, the Prime Minister will this time have to engage in a completely different exercise by defending himself against a motion of censure tabled by the left-wing opposition. A little united after their sharp disagreements at the end of last year, the Insoumises, socialists, ecologists and communists troops have - once is no longer customary - agreed to try - as often - to overthrow the new government.
A decision taken after Gabriel Attal's refusal to submit to a vote of confidence by deputies. A vote in which he knew that the outcome would have been unfavorable since he does not have an absolute majority in the Palais Bourbon. “This motion of censure will allow us to have, since we do not have a vote of confidence, a vote of no confidence. Those who do not vote for it will de facto be in the majority,” argued the president of the Insoumis group, Mathilde Panot. “Without a clear political objective, without definitively defined portfolios or ministerial perimeters, Mr. Gabriel Attal has, for three weeks, been the captain of a boat adrift,” write the 146 deputies of the former left-wing Nupes alliance in this text, which will be debated from 10 a.m. in the hemicycle.
A motion of censure which should not, barring a huge surprise, worry the Prime Minister. To be adopted, the text must receive 289 votes, or more than half of the deputies. Impossible for the left to get there alone, therefore. And for the moment, the other oppositions do not seem willing to add their voices to those of the Nupes deputies. The National Rally did not do so during the first motion of censure targeting Élisabeth Borne. And if Marine Le Pen has not yet made a final decision, still leaving a slight suspense, her right arm at the Palais Bourbon, the vice-president of the RN Assembly Sébastien Chenu, declared last week on France Inter that the 88 elected officials in his group would “probably not” vote for this motion.
“Frankly, it wouldn’t do any good. What's the point of having a symbolic vote? Let’s extend our hand to the government, if it does not seize it, there will always be time to overthrow it in a few weeks,” argues another RN deputy.
Because mathematically, even if they finally decided to vote for this text, it would not be enough to bring down the government. It would also be necessary for a majority of LR deputies to decide to cast their votes. And even if the latter are very angry after the censorship of a large part of the immigration law by the Constitutional Council and the poaching by Emmanuel Macron of Rachida Dati, they prefer to procrastinate for the moment, considering tabling their own motion a little later.
“We will not vote on the Nupes motion of censure, but the question of tabling one ourselves arises,” indicates an LR executive to the Assembly. At a group meeting last Tuesday, many of the LR elected officials in the Lower House made their resentment towards Emmanuel Macron known. This “bad mood” of the right, says a minister, does not worry the government too much. “They feel that they can no longer trust us. But they will quickly realize that they will not be able to table a motion without the help of the deputies of the Liot group, who may not want it,” laughs this same member of the executive.
In the meantime, this first motion of censure of the Attal era should not worry the government. However, it should be closely scrutinized. Both the Macronists and the oppositions know that the examinations of these texts constitute very political moments in the Assembly. At the end of last year, their sequence - following the budget 49.3 - ended up completely draining Élisabeth Borne. And by accelerating its fall.