Between Paris and kyiv, a bilateral agreement to provide long-term military aid

The security agreement between France and Ukraine, signed on February 16 at the Élysée during a visit by Volodymyr Zelensky, aims to “set in stone” French military aid to Ukraine. Shortly before, the Ukrainian president had initialed a text along the same lines with Germany. In January, the British inaugurated this type of engagement during a surprise trip to kyiv by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

These agreements are concluded in the logic drawn up during the last summit of the Atlantic Alliance in Vilnius, in July 2023, where the member countries of the organization did not want to set a timetable for Ukraine's accession to the NATO. The G7 powers, joined by 25 other states, have therefore decided to negotiate bilateral partnerships with kyiv.

The Franco-Ukrainian agreement provides for “the provision of comprehensive assistance to Ukraine” for “the restoration of its territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders”. In this text concluded for “a period of ten years”, Paris undertakes to provide in 2024 “up to 3 billion euros” of “additional” military aid to Kiev, after support that France establishes at 1 .7 billion in 2022 and 2.1 billion in 2023. This figure was eagerly awaited as France was criticized for the vagueness it maintains regarding the reality of its aid.

Although it contains diplomatic clauses, such as the commitment to support Kiev's membership in the EU and NATO, a section on intelligence, in particular cooperation to combat disinformation, the agreement essentially concerns the supply of military equipment.

Paris did not commit to new deliveries on this occasion and did not really detail its intentions. Emmanuel Macron intends to establish a new logic of direct arms production for Ukraine. Nexter, the manufacturer of Caesar cannons, has increased its production capacity to 78 pieces per year, which can be fully supplied to Ukraine. But for that, an order would have to be placed, which is only the case for 18 guns. The delivery of Mirage aircraft, particularly the bomber versions, is not envisaged by the government.

France took the opportunity to recapitulate its previous deliveries, such as artillery assets, notably 30 Caesars, or anti-aircraft defense with a long-range SAMPT system or GM200 radars, armored vehicles and “around a hundred” Scalp missiles.

Also read: War in Ukraine: why arms deliveries have not changed the situation

Germany was more precise. It has already released an envelope of nearly 7.1 billion for 2024, after 5 billion in 2023. Berlin also announced the delivery of 36 PzH2000 armored howitzers, 120,000 shells, two anti-aircraft systems, for a total value of 1, 13 billion euros. Pushed by Berlin, Rheinmetall plans to open a shell production factory in Ukraine capable, in 2025, of supplying 200,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition per year.

London, which promises military aid of 2.5 billion pounds sterling (2.9 billion euros) for the years 2024 and 2025, gave details. The British plan to deliver new Storm Shadow missiles - their version of the Scalp -, hundreds of thousands of shells, drones and anti-tank weapons.