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The United Kingdom emerged in the first quarter from the technical recession into which it fell at the end of 2023, while its gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.6% in the first three months of the year, announced on Friday. the National Statistics Office (ONS).
British GDP fell by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023, after falling by 0.1% in the third. The rebound in the economy is more marked than expected by economists, who expected growth of 0.4% in the first quarter. Two quarters of economic contraction in a row are generally considered by economists to be the definition of a so-called “technical” recession.
The economy experienced "generalized strength in the service sectors" in the first quarter, particularly in "retail trade, public transport and health", despite "another quarter at half mast in the health sector. construction,” Liz McKeown, director of economic statistics at the ONS, detailed on X (ex-Twitter).
GDP growth is also more marked than the forecasts of the Bank of England (BoE), which also forecast an increase of 0.4% over the first three months of the year. The BoE, which raised its key rate 14 times between December 2021 and last September to fight inflation, unsurprisingly maintained its key rate at 5.25% on Thursday. But she said she was “optimistic” about a decline in inflation which should allow her to lower her rates in the coming months, and thus ease a measure which weighs on the finances of households and businesses, and therefore on the economy. economy. The monetary institution on Thursday raised its growth forecasts to 0.5% for the whole of 2024 and 1% in 2025 in the United Kingdom.
British inflation fell slightly in the United Kingdom in March, to 3.2% year-on-year compared to 3.4% the previous month. It has slowed significantly since its peak at more than 11% at the end of 2022, but it remains above the 2% target set by the Bank of England. If “things are still difficult for many people”, the British economy “has reached a milestone”, greeted Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on X on Friday.
“We expect continued growth for the remainder of this year, supported by a more favorable economic context,” notably lower inflation and rising wages, commented Yael Selfin, economist at KPMG. However, the improvement in growth “probably limited by the persistent weakness” observed in terms of productivity and the difficulties in “increasing the employment rate” in the country, added the economist.
