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Salary increases will be “around 5%” this year, estimates the director general of INSEE

This is the new bone of social discord.

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Salary increases will be “around 5%” this year, estimates the director general of INSEE

This is the new bone of social discord. After pensions, wages are now at the top of the demands of the various unions, who are jointly organizing a day of national mobilization this Friday, particularly “for wages”, before a social conference on low wages organized under the aegis of Matignon next Monday . Galloping inflation since the summer of 2021 has widened the gap between wages and consumer prices, which have exploded. As a result, the purchasing power of the French has contracted. A situation which could well change in the coming months.

INSEE anticipates salary increases in the same proportions as inflation by the end of 2023. “The average salary per capita (bonuses included) in 2023 will increase like prices, i.e. around 5%,” declared the director general of INSEE to Les Échos this Friday. As a reminder, the general price increase stood at 4.9% in September and should reach 5% on average over the whole of 2023. “When there is an inflationary shock, wages follow price rises are always delayed; they do it now,” explained Jean-Luc Tavernier, head of INSEE since 2012.

This hypothesis from INSEE corroborates the estimates made by the Mercer firm and the annual observatory of Social Performance and Remuneration of LHH, which in July expected an increase in salaries of between 4.7% and 4.95% this year.

The anticipated increase is certainly beneficial for household budgets, but it does not, however, make up for the declines in purchasing power accumulated in 2021 and 2022. Last year, salaries only increased on average by 2 .9% (3.9% in the private sector), while annual inflation jumped by 5.2%.

“It is a safe bet (for the future) that inflation will slow down faster than wages,” indicates the director general of INSEE. Therefore, I am not surprised that forecasters are counting on a differential in favor of wages next year, with an increase in purchasing power as a result.” In other words, wages could increase more than inflation in 2024, causing the French wallets to catch up.

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