Pensions: the richest are the losers of the reform, according to a report

Critics of pension reform, who for months pounded the pavement claiming that changing the rules was both unfair and unnecessary, were doubly wrong. In its opinion published Thursday, the pension monitoring committee, a group of experts responsible for informing the government on public policies on pensions, reveals that the reform is much more redistributive than has been said.

“ The invalids and the unfit were well protected. And the reform has no impact for those who left at 67, the age at which the discount is cancelled. But the poorest 25% will be winners, while the most advantaged 25% will be slightly losers,” said Didier Blanchet, president of the CSR. That is an increase of 7% on small pensions, he indicates, an appreciable gain "even if it does not make fortunes". Knowing that the tricolor pension system is already, by nature, very redistributive: the pension gaps between rich and poor being much smaller than the wage gaps.

The main measure that will benefit the most modest is the guarantee provided for in the law to ensure a minimum pension equal to 85% of the minimum wage for all those who have had a full career at the minimum wage. The CSR stresses, however, that "it will be necessary to be vigilant about respecting this commitment". Indeed, this amount of pension will be reached by adding the basic pension paid by Social Security and the supplementary pension. But if the government can set the rules on the basic pension, those of the supplementary pensions depend on the social partners managers of the Agirc-Arrco… and the latter have not yet decided anything. The rules of the national interprofessional agreement of 2017 must be renegotiated in the fall. “If we continue with the current rules of purchase value and service from the point of supplementary pensions, we will go back below 85% of the minimum wage,” warns Didier Blanchet. However, the government has not provided for any binding mechanism to force complementary organizations to follow the recommendation of 85% of the minimum wage. “The question will be raised, while the reform will generate surpluses for the complementary organizations, alerts the president of the CSR. In a car with two steering wheels, if the two do not turn in the same direction, there is a problem. »

Another point of contention: did the pension system need reform to restore its financial balance? However, here again, the CSR stresses that not only was the reform necessary, but that it will not be sufficient. While the new rules come into force on September 1, the scheme's deficit will be reduced "but not eliminated by 2030", indicates the CSR, and above all it should "continue to widen thereafter". A finding also already drawn up by the Pensions Guidance Council (COR), when submitting its report last June. All in all, the reform may appear "less financially efficient than it had perhaps been envisaged at the outset", at least from the single point of view of the pension system, since it is also expected to have favorable effects on all of the public accounts, the notice says. “We are not making recommendations, because the reform was very hard to get adopted, and no one is planning to make another right away. But there is still a 0.2 point of GDP deficit in 2030, while the reform aimed to completely reduce the deficit, "says Didier Blanchet. The reform does not settle either the still disparate perspectives between the different regimes (civil servants, employees, self-employed), while a hidden deficit of the civil service is regularly mentioned. "A comprehensive reflection on the funding architecture, including non-employee schemes, remains necessary," notes the CSR.

Since the deficits are likely to persist or reappear, the question will therefore be "how to continue to move forward in the direction of their reduction, without calling into question the protections put in place for the lowest pensions", concludes the CSR. But this cenacle, however responsible for enlightening the executive on the directions to follow, is careful not to provide an answer, anxious not to “ do not throw oil on the fire of a debate which tends to polarize ” . This caution can be explained by the fact that the reform has not yet entered into force, and that only 2 implementing decrees out of 31 have been published. The end of the mandate of the president of the CSR, who must be replaced in the coming months, did not plead for too affirmative blows of the chin either. It will therefore be up to his successor (appointed to the Council of Ministers) to take on the delicate task of taking stock of the reform before 2027 and indicating the paths to follow in the coming years. But one thing is certain: “People have the illusion that their pensions are financed by the contributions they have paid, concludes Didier Blanchet. The reality is much more complicated. »