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Industrial production in Germany plunged in June, for the second consecutive month, against a backdrop of high energy costs and sluggish demand for the sector, which have plagued Europe's largest economy for several months. It fell by 1.5% over one month in data adjusted for seasonal variations and working days, after a revised drop of 0.1% in May, the statistical office Destatis said in a press release on Monday. The decline is much stronger than expected by experts from the financial analysis tool Factset, who expected a drop of 0.5%. Over one year, production fell by 1.7%, again according to Destatis.
In detail, the production of capital goods fell by 3.9%. A decrease which is not offset by the increase for consumer goods (1.8%) and intermediate goods (0.4%), according to Destatis. The automobile sector saw its production fall by 3.5% over one month.
German industry, the pillar of Europe's leading economy, has been suffering for several months. It is weighed down by a sharp fall in domestic demand, due to inflation, which remains at high levels - at 6.2% over one year in July -, and by the rate hikes carried out with a vengeance by the Bank. Central European (ECB). Energy prices also remain relatively high for the branch, and some of the most energy-intensive activities, such as chemicals, are struggling to return to their pre-war production levels in Ukraine. “The energy crisis has probably caused a permanent loss of capacity in these sectors,” explains Franziska Palmas, expert for Capital Economist.
Exports, essential for the sector, are less dynamic, against a backdrop of slowing demand for German products in China and the United States, two crucial markets for the sector. Orders have certainly started to rise again for two months, but this rebound is "largely linked to major contracts" in the field of aeronautics in particular, which artificially inflates the figures, indicated the Ministry of the Economy in a communicated. “The outlook for the industrial situation is still bleak,” he summed up.
Germany entered recession in the first quarter, with two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP (gross domestic product), including a drop of 0.4% between January and March. For the second quarter, Destatis certainly reported a stagnating GDP (0.0%). But these figures are provisional.
