Faced with inflation, the French are reviewing their holiday menus

“It really shouldn’t snow, too.” In the middle of the week, there was excitement among small retailers and French supermarkets. A few hours before New Year's Eve on December 24, stores will still be on war footing this weekend, to welcome latecomers who have come to buy their last gifts or finish preparations for Christmas menus. According to an OpinionWay survey for Wise, 46% of French people wait until the last weekend to complete their end-of-year shopping. December 25 falling on a Monday, and the holidays starting late for all of France on Friday 22, businesses are expecting three days of high traffic on Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

But if the weather ultimately looks favorable for this last rush, the uncertainty remains no less strong. Because since the start of the festive season in mid-November, it's time for sobriety in small shops and supermarkets, or on fishmongers' stalls. According to the latest panelist data available as of December 17, sales of festive products are particularly struggling. Thus, between mid-November and mid-December, the volumes sold of champagne fell by more than 17% compared to the same period last year, according to panelist Circana. The drop reached 13% for foie gras, and up to 22% for canned foie gras or smoked salmon, the usual stars of starters.

“Be careful, let's not forget that for foie gras, there is still a problem of availability after the strong episode of avian flu in winter 2022 which forced us to dip into stocks,” explains Jacques Trottier, CEO of Labeyrie Fine Foods (Labeyrie, Blini, Delpierre, etc.). There are still products on the shelves, but it could be more complicated after New Year's Eve on the 24th.  To try to satisfy all budgets, the group (1 billion euros in turnover) has broadened its range of offers , ranging from 2 to 14 slices of smoked salmon per pack to allow smaller budgets to treat themselves from 5 euros. Or by offering foie gras appetizers that are more affordable than the classic whole blocks.

After two years of inflation, and despite a traditional propensity to preserve end-of-year pleasures, the French this time seem to be showing restraint in spending. Whether for toy purchases (-6.5% since the start of the year to December 10, over one year) but also and above all for feasts. Instead of traditional dishes, they now favor other, less expensive, festive products, such as sparkling wines (2% according to Nielsen IQ), crémants, pâtés, smoked trout (10%), or chips.

On the sweet side, chocolate, affected by the sharp rise in cocoa prices, has also seen its volume sales over one year fall by 10% since the start of the season, to the benefit of small confectioneries whose purchases remain constant. However, there has been an improvement in recent days, particularly for children's chocolates. “The figures at the start of the week are finally excellent,” breathes Nicolas Neykov, general manager of the French subsidiary of Ferrero (Kinder, Ferrero, Raffaello, etc.), which achieves 25% of its festive sales during the last 15 days of the year. It is difficult to say if we will be able to catch up, but we see that promotions are very sought after, and that the children's market is doing better. Above all, alongside certain distributor brands which are doing well, major brands like ours play their role as a safe haven.”

The desire not to be discouraged also dominates among fishmongers, where despite prices falling by 10% for scallops or oysters, purchases are struggling to get off the ground. Shellfish farmers and wholesalers are counting on New Year's Eve on the 31st to regain momentum. “For several weeks, we have seen that consumers are tightening their belts,” explains Philippe Le Gal, president of the National Shellfish Farming Committee (CNC). They limit themselves to six oysters, where they used to take twelve.” “But the game is not over,” tries to reassure Laurent Chiron at the head of the Marennes Oléron sector (one in four oysters consumed in France). If we manage to please the customer with a good product at an affordable price, they will come back and buy a basket for the 31st. When we know that the majority of people only buy oysters once a year, this can ultimately to boost sales.”

In the end, only a few products suffered less: cheeses and aperitif products (respectively - 3% and - 3.9% over the period), sodas (- 1.4%) or alcohols (- 4%) serving as a base to cocktails (gin, vodka or tequila).

Despite these “worrying” trends, according to Juliette Fabre, consumer goods expert at Circana, some hope that the late school holiday schedule will allow a last-minute comeback on the shelves. With the first week of January still being a week off for children, there are potentially three weeks of New Year's Eve shopping ahead. Festive meals can last from December 22 until January 7. Or three weekends of family or friendly reunions. “It’s a unique configuration,” judges Jacques Trottier at Labeyrie. Industrially, we are in any case ready to respond to all new orders that come from stores this first week of January.”

Also read: Menu, shopping, gifts… All our advice for preparing for Christmas without breaking the bank

Finally, new consumption habits could also prove to be a boon for certain manufacturers. As with the Gers SME Ducs de Gascogne (20 million euros turnover) which explains that if the trend is indeed towards purchasing smaller quantities of their foie gras and terrines, this does not prevent it from grow its sales. In particular by attracting new customers with smaller, but more numerous, baskets. “For these gourmet boxes, the size of the boxes purchased is decreasing but the volumes are increasing. So in the end the market is growing slightly,” concludes Alain Locqueneux, general director of the group. The real business magic of Christmas.