Economy: the 10 key figures for this new school year

Inflation, businesses, exports, energy... It's an economic return that is off to a flying start. In addition to recent government announcements, INSEE has also unveiled its latest data. The opportunity for Le Figaro to come back to the key figures for the coming weeks and above all, to those who will punctuate the wallets of the French.

Bad news for prices, which have continued to soar this summer. After an increase of 4.3% in July, INSEE announced this week in its first estimate inflation at 4.8% year-on-year. This new acceleration, the first since April, is due to the rebound in “energy prices”, note national statisticians. By way of explanation, the note cites in particular the rise in electricity prices, that of “petroleum products”, as well as the end of sales, which logically caused prices to rise on store shelves.

While household consumption has increased significantly by 0.6% over the last three months, compared to the previous three months, it remains down by 1.1% compared to July 2022, according to the Institute. An observation that can be observed in particular in the purchase of school supplies with “a significant decline in sales at the start of the school year”, underlines the GFK panelist. Manufacturers' turnover thus amounted to 357 million euros between June 26 and August 27, corresponding to a drop of 5.2% compared to last year.

To “definitively break the price spiral” on supermarket shelves, Bruno Le Maire announced three key measures this week. First, the trade negotiations which must determine the prices of all the products on the shelves will be held in the fall, and even “from September”, rather than from December to March as provided for by law. In addition, the prices of 5,000 references will "no longer move or move downwards" from now on, explained the Minister of the Economy. Finally, distributors will have to pass on the shelves “compulsorily and immediately” the price reductions granted by manufacturers and not postpone them to increase their margins. The objective is thus to limit the repercussions of food inflation, estimated by INSEE at 12.7% over one year in July, after 13.7% in June.

On the salary side, certain professions will see their remuneration increased. Thursday evening, the Prime Minister announced a series of salary increase measures to compensate for the arduous work of caregivers. In total, this represents an envelope of one billion euros in a full year. Among the initiatives is a 25% wage increase for night work for non-medical staff, only in the public sector, such as nurses or nursing assistants. For doctors, regardless of their status (public or private), the executive has decided to increase the on-call tariff by 50%. All these new measures will be included in the next Social Security budget for entry into force scheduled for January 1.

In this new school year, teachers also see their salaries increased by the government. During his press conference on Monday, Gabriel Attal notably recalled that “all teachers in this country will receive between 125 and 250 euros net more per month unconditionally”. In addition to this “base” part, the teacher “pact” is being put in place, a device which provides for increases in remuneration in exchange for the exercise of “additional missions”.

This tax, which particularly weighs on industrial companies, was halved this year and was to be abolished in 2024, but the government has chosen to stagger its elimination, at a cost reduced to one billion euros per year for finances. public. “At the end of 2027, the CVAE will be definitively abolished,” assured Bruno Le Maire on August 24. Four days later, the Minister of the Economy again confirmed the elimination of the Business Value Added Contribution, before recalling that the executive has “already eliminated 10 billion in production taxes between 2017 and 2022”. “It was not on Emmanuel Macron’s program,” he recalls. To ensure the gradual elimination of the CVAE, the State will eliminate one billion euros from this production tax next year.

Support for hiring, aid at international fairs and on e-commerce platforms... The government, which wants to make international companies dream, unveiled a 125 million euro plan on Thursday. With 13 measures, this plan called “Dare to export” is financed for the period 2023-2026, said Olivier Becht, Minister Delegate for Foreign Trade. "France must once again become a great exporting power," he said.

The main measures consist of offering personalized follow-up to companies that have won the France 2030 initiative to go to foreign markets, and financially encouraging companies to go to international fairs through a 30% subsidy. The plan also aims to promote the hiring of a young person dedicated to exporting through aid that can go up to 12,000 euros. It also intends to strengthen the visibility of French products on the major online sales platforms, and train young entrepreneurs in the challenges of export.

The number of subsidized jobs should decrease by around 15,000 next year, Labor Minister Olivier Dussopt announced on Monday on the sidelines of the Medef summer school in Paris. “It is an order of magnitude on which we are still working today and all the arbitrations have not been made”, nuanced the minister, while the draft budget for 2024 must be presented at the end of September. The number of subsidized contracts in France is at “levels much higher than what we experienced for example in 2018 or 2019”, he recalled. The Minister also specified that the subsidized contracts should be “mobilized as a priority for those furthest from employment, seniors, people with disabilities, those under 25 with qualification difficulties, recipients of social minima ".

At the end of a meeting bringing together the eight organizations on August 25, a day of mobilization in favor of wages and purchasing power, gender equality, and the defense of the environment, was decided for the October 13th. A way for the unions to once again display their unity, after the lost pension battle, and to continue to put pressure on the government in a context of high inflation. This mobilization will be part of the European framework, with the European Trade Union Confederation planning another mobilization date, December 13, according to Yvan Ricordeau (CFDT).

The regulated sales price (TRV) of natural gas sold by Engie will increase by 8.7% (i.e. 7.9% including tax) on September 1, due in particular to the rise in world prices, the regulator announced last week. . This increase, in line with the trend of recent months, will be 2.7% for customers using gas for cooking, 5.5% for those who have dual use, cooking and hot water, and 9% for fireplaces heated by gas, specifies the Energy Regulation Commission (CRE) in a press release. “This increase of unprecedented magnitude is observed in all European and Asian countries. It is explained by the global economic recovery observed for several months and by the sharp increase in gas prices on the world market due to an exceptional context,” she explains.

For GRDF customers, CRE published its benchmark natural gas selling price for residential consumers at the beginning of August. Thus, a subscription taken out in September for hot water and cooking must amount to 102.94 euros including tax per year and 257.18 euros including tax for heating. “Between August and September 2023, the variable part excluding taxes (HT) of a typical cooking/hot water and heating consumer decreases by €1.56/MWh”, also indicates the regulator.

If the end of summer is only 20 days away, it is already time to take stock of tourism this summer. On Tuesday, the Minister Delegate for Tourism, Olivia Grégoire, announced that "88% of French people have gone to France". For the whole of the summer, she welcomed a season "generally excellent in France, of the same vintage as last year, which was record". "Summer marks the great return of international customers, while French attendance has remained at its very good levels of 2022. International arrivals jumped 29% for long-haul flights," added the minister.

Olivia Grégoire expects tourism revenues to exceed last year's 58 billion euros. Atout France, the French promotion agency, is counting on an amount of between 64 and 67 billion. Europeans returned in droves, particularly in August. Americans, taking advantage of a favorable euro-dollar parity, were as numerous as last year. Arrivals from Asia are restarting (119% compared to 2022) but from a very low level.

Internationally, the main news concerns Chinese real estate, which is currently going through an unprecedented crisis. After record losses, one of the largest developers, Country Garden, was due to repay a bond loan on Saturday for a total amount of 3.9 billion yuan (about 500 million euros). Saved by the gong, the group finally obtained a rescheduling of its repayment until 2026, in order to avoid default. But Country Garden is not out of business with another deadline looming next week for the repayment of $ 22.5 million on two loan interests. The group thus has until Tuesday to formally avoid default.

Another Chinese promoter, Evergrande, is also in turmoil. As of June 30, the group's borrowings amounted to 624.77 billion yuan (about 80 billion euros). Evergrande's creditors are due to vote on its offshore debt on Monday, which could lead to one of the biggest restructurings ever in China. At the start of the week, the promoter's listing had resumed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a plunge as soon as trading opened, after 17 months of suspension for non-publication of its financial results. If Evergrande and Country Garden fail to resolve their financial problems, the real estate market around the world, including France, could find itself disrupted.