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The government is finally facing the facts: its economic growth forecast for 2024 no longer holds. Bruno Le Maire will be on the set of TF1’s 20 Hours on Sunday evening to announce the bitter news. From 1.4%, the 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast in September by Bercy should be lowered to 0.9%. This is a figure similar to that of the European Commission, announced Thursday, and that of the Bank of France, and very close to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund (1%).
The Minister of the Economy “should in particular invoke the bad German situation to justify this revision, because it has repercussions on the entire euro zone”, wrote the newspaper L'Opinion this Saturday. Sluggish activity which can also be explained by the rapid increases in interest rates, orchestrated by central banks in order to break the inflationary spiral.
This downward revision of growth will not be painless for public finances. It will require reviewing the budgetary trajectory to keep the government's commitment to lower the public deficit to 4.4% of GDP in 2024. Thus, after announcing Bercy's new growth forecast, Bruno Le Maire should announce Sunday evening a savings plan, amounting to at least “10 billion euros”, writes L'Opinion, taking up the estimate from Les Échos.
As we wrote a few days ago, these savings should be achieved through credit freezes, decided by decree. A blow that should affect all ministries without exception. Because the other possible option for the executive, that of going through a draft amending finance law (PLFR), is today ruled out by the government, to avoid having to resort to the unpopular article 49.3 with the deadline of the European elections.
