Bruno Le Maire, the lookout of Bercy, returns to his post

Monday morning, Bruno Le Maire presented his wishes to “economic actors”. A moment he appreciates. And which had a particular flavor for him when the president and his new prime minister were going to confirm him in his post a few days later - the phone call was made to him by Gabriel Attal, this Thursday. More than a thousand leaders, union representatives, elected officials, journalists, wisely gathered in the large Pierre Mendès France conference room of the ministry were able, once again, to listen to the minister outline his priorities for France. In the first years, the speaker's somewhat presidential emphasis made the audience smile. Everyone has since gotten used to it. This is the seventh time he has done the exercise. Only Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, Secretary of State and then Minister without interruption from 1959 to 1966, displays (for only a few more months!) greater longevity at the head of the ministry.

To all those who have asked him about his aspirations since 2017, - Matignon, international posts, Quai d'Orsay? - the normalien, a writer in his spare time, invariably answers that “he wants to stay as long as possible at Bercy”. So here he is satisfied. And able to benefit from the fruits of this anchoring. In almost seven years at the head of the country's Finance, Bruno Le Maire has gained his independence. The unsuccessful candidate in the right-wing primary in 2016, rallied at the last hour to the president, has become one of the strong men of the macronie. He is popular with the French, less so with his government teammates, who invariably denounce his solitary game. Emmanuel Macron, who would have seen him take the lead in the European list, is also frequently annoyed by the autonomy of his minister. He has regularly toyed with the idea of ​​thanking him over these seven years, and again in recent days, but has not brought himself to do so.

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During the recent debates on the immigration law, the minister showcased this freedom of tone by coming out of the woodwork to emphasize the need to “resume the Senate's version of the text” and to display firmness on this sovereign subject. In Matignon, Elisabeth Borne strangled herself; events proved his minister right. Does this sidestep augur more frank positions to come in preparation for a candidacy for 2027? Of course, Bruno Le Maire is thinking about it - even if the equation becomes complicated for him with the arrival of Gabriel Attal at Matignon. The minister therefore knows that he will have to leave Bercy at one point or another if he wants to be credible. The deadline is still far away, he is preparing for it in an impressionistic way for the moment. In November, he brought together a thousand elected officials to talk about the necessary “transformations” of the country. At the start of the school year, he praised his “reinforced concrete” record.

On this aspect, reality appears more nuanced than the presentation that the person concerned wants to give. At the ministry, the Le Maire line is essentially defined by two axes: a defense of supply-side policy, notably through tax cuts. Despite the wishes of part of the majority, Le Maire has always been opposed to revisiting corporate or capital taxation. This stability contributes to the country's attractiveness to foreign investors. The Mayor embellishes this line with the expression of a “Gaullist sensitivity”, which sometimes tends to mutate into a gentle statism. The minister thus reveled in the questions of economic sovereignty, relocations, reindustrialization... They gave rise to magnificent speeches but also some concrete progress, for example on electric batteries. Bruno Le Maire stubbornly tried to bring these themes to Brussels. The Covid crisis will have allowed him to advance his vision of a Europe assuming itself as an economic and political power. Once the shock has passed, however, old reflexes seem to have taken over, particularly in Germany.

During Covid, Bercy spent wildly, virtually socializing the economy, to ensure that households and businesses withstood the shock. The bosses were grateful to the minister. The decision to protect small businesses and households from inflation has proven equally popular and, from an economic point of view, quite effective. Price increases have affected France less than other European countries, which should allow French growth to rebound more quickly. As a corollary of this desire to protect the French from all external shocks, public finances are suffering. With a debt of 112% of gross domestic product (GDP), France even clearly stands out in Europe for its financial carelessness. Failing to have tackled head-on the question of public spending during the 2024 budget, the minister is reduced to promising reforms for the 2025 finance law. The argument had the great merit of convincing the rating agencies which did not have not downgraded the French debt rating in recent months.

The confidence of the agencies does not prevent France from bearing the brunt of the change in the financial environment and the explosion in interest rates. The cost of interest will thus quickly become the first item in the French budget. The shock of rising rates is also gradually spreading to the entire economy, as illustrated by the real estate crisis, the sharp increase in the number of bankruptcies and especially the rebound in unemployment. After reaching a low of 7% at the start of the year, it rebounded to 7.4% in November. The Banque de France sees it increasing slightly throughout next year to reach 7.8%. An extremely symbolic subject as the macronie made the return of full employment the guideline of this second five-year term after several years of success on this front.