Barbie, Oppenheimer, Anatomy of a Fall? Hollywood experts deliver their Oscar predictions

The confectioners' truce is rarely easy in Hollywood; rather, it marks the home stretch in the race for the Oscars, a few weeks before the publication of the films and artists in the running. Already, the first trophies from critical circles have fallen. But none of the precursor ceremonies to the Oscars – notably those organized by the guilds of actors, screenwriters, directors and producers who cut across the Oscar electorate – have yet released their list of nominees. Favorites and outsiders alike can still hope to reap a shower of Oscar nominations on January 23. And be in the running to pocket a statuette on March 10.

The period is therefore the most favorable for the game of bets and predictions. In this exercise of divination there are two schools: that of the arty favorite (advocated by the experts of the Los Angeles Times) and that of statistics (based on the distinctions already obtained at festivals and at the box office), adopted by Hollywood Reporter and Variety. By cross-checking their respective rankings, here are the feature films that can hope to add “Oscar nominee” to their posters from January 23.

1. Oppenheimer (Universal)2. Barbie (Warner Bros.)3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple)4. American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)5. Winter Break (Focus) or Without Knowing Us (Searchlight)6. Poor Creatures (Searchlight)7. Maestro (Netflix)8. Past Lives -Our lives before (A24)9. Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)10. The Zone of Interest (A24)

The top of the ranking is unanimous. There we find the champions of the summer box office: “Barbenheimer” and the great American tragic fresco by Martin Scorsese. In ambush is the horrific satire Poor Creatures by Yorgos Lanthimos, big winner of the Mostra. Sensation of the Toronto Festival, American Fiction, portrait of an African-American writer exposed to the prejudices of the publishing world, is often mentioned. Just like the intimate pearl of Sundance Past Lives - Our lives before, the story of the platonic reunion between two childhood lovers. The shocks of Cannes, the Palme d'Or Anatomy of a Fall and its challenger the grand jury prize The Zone of Interest on the Shoah, bring up the rear. Less convinced by the misadventures of those left behind at the boarding school of Winter Break and the biopic Maestro, the Los Angeles Times gets behind the heartbreaking LGBT romance Without Knowing Us, where two London next-door neighbors haunted by loneliness and mourning get to know each other and witness a phenomenon that defies understanding.

1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)2. Greta Gerwig (Barbie) 3. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)4. Yorgos Lanthimos (Pauvres créatures)5. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

All publications agree on this quintessence. If a big surprise was needed to shake up the established order, it would be to be found in the imagination of Bradley Cooper at the baton of Maestro, in the retro poetry of Alexander Payne (Winter Break). Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) and Céline Song (Our Lives Before) who would allow Greta Gerwig to not be the only woman in the category, are for the moment distant threats. Just like the talented, but divisive, Todd Haynes (May December) and Emerald Fennell (Saltburn).

1. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)2. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)3. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)4. Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)5. Paul Giamatti (Winter Break) ou Andrew Scott (Sans nous connaître)

If the name of the first four named is not debated, the one who will bring up the rear is more uncertain. Will voters choose the experienced but often overshadowed Paul Giamatti, the formidable grumpy and lonely professor from Winter Break, or the aquiline Andrew Scott? Revealed by the cult series Sherlock and Fleabag, the Briton finds his first major leading role on the big screen with Without Knowing Us.

A reservoir of surprises, this fifth place would not be stolen either if it were occupied by the poisonous intruder from the sensual satire Saltburn, Barry Keoghan, the lost kid from the Banshees of Inisherin, or Colman Domingo who plays the civil rights activist Bayard Rustin in the film of the same name for Netflix.

1. Emma Stone (Poor Creatures)2. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)3. Margot Robbie (Barbie) 4. Carey Mulligan (Maestro) 5. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall) or Annette Bening (Unsinkable) or Greta Lee (Past Lives)

The most contested category of these 2024 Oscars with an infernal and prodigious trio: Margot Robbie as a Barbie doll afraid of death, Lily Gladstone who would be the first Native American actress to be distinguished or Emma Stone as a Frankenstein creature discovering the pleasures of the flesh and exposing himself (literally and figuratively). Breathtakingly ambiguous in Anatomy of a Fall, Sandra Hüller will have to contend with the metamorphoses and physical performances - as the Oscars love them - of Annette Bening as an extreme swimmer and Carey Mulligan, muse and scorned woman .

If they wanted to be daring, the members of the Oscar Academy could favor the discreet Greta Lee, a touching Korean forty-something living in New York rewinding her life in Past Lives. Unless they succumb to Natalie Portman's act of charm and hubris in May December.

1. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)2. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)3. Mark Ruffalo (Pauvres Créatures)4. Charles Melton (May December)5. Robert de Niro (Killers Of The Flower Moon)

Throughout the summer, this category seemed to boil down to a duel between the brainless Ken, played by a Ryan Gosling drinking the chalice of ridicule to the dregs, and the devious Secretary of Commerce Lewis Strauss, sworn enemy of Oppenheimer under the features of which Robert Downey Jr. reminded us that he could play something other than Iron Man. The race has since become complicated with the entry into the running of young Charles Melton, object of the desires of Julianne Moore and Natalie Portman in May December, portrait of a toxic actress. As a young man realizing that his youth has been stolen from him, the actor discovered in the soap series Riverdale is majestic.

If voters resisted the histrionics of Robert De Niro and Willem Dafoe (Poor Creatures), they would be inspired to highlight another young debut: Winter Break's Dominic Sessa.

1. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)2. Da'Vine Joy Randolph (Winter Break)3. Jodie Foster (Unsinkable)4. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)5. Julianne Moore (May December) or Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest)

This category seems best placed to honor the musical and remake of The Color Purple. Sandra Hüller can hope that her chilling performance as the wife of an SS officer living in Auschwitz who closes her eyes and ears to the Final Solution will allow her to attract additional votes in the leading actress section where she is in the running for Anatomy of a fall. The surprise could come from Rosamund Pike, an elegant aristo disconnected from reality and devoid of the slightest empathy in Saltburn.

1. Barbie (Noah Baumbach

Everyone is on the same wavelength for this equal section which perhaps constitutes the most realistic chance of a statuette for the French Palme d’Or. Alone May December (Samy Burch

1. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)2. Pauvres Créatures (Tony McNamara)3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth

The category where Christopher Nolan undoubtedly has the least risk of being snubbed and stealing the trophy, on March 10.

1. The Area of ​​Interest (UK)2. The Snow Circle (Spain)3. The Passion of Dodin Bouffant (France)4. The Daughters of Olfa (Tunisia)5. The Teachers’ Room (Germany) or The Dead Leaves (Finland)

The honor and reputation of impartiality of the CNC are at stake. If The Passion of Dodin Bouffant, which the institution preferred to Anatomy of a Fall, fails to secure a nomination, the disavowal will be terrible and the suspicions of pettiness and political revenge against the CNC strengthened. La Passion de Dodin Bouffant has two major assets to seduce across the Atlantic: the aura of French gastronomy and Juliette Binoche. Oscar winner for The English Patient two decades ago, the actress continues her forays into Hollywood and leads an active campaign for Tran Anh Hung's film.

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)2. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)3. Elementary (Pixar) 4. Nimona (Netflix)5. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Illumination) or Chicken Run 2: The Nuggets Menace (Netflix)

It's difficult to separate the explosive beauty of the drawings from the new adventure of Spider-Man and the poetry of Hayao Miyazaki's fable. Weighed down by the mediocre Wish, Disney will have to pass and console itself with a selection of Elementary, from the Pixar subsidiary.

1. What Was I Made For? (Barbie), Billie Eilish

Who could steal the statuette from Greta Gerwig's candy pink blockbuster, whose soundtrack continues to make the world dance? Will the Academy be able to resist the temptation to name the anthem I'm just Ken just to have Ryan Gosling on stage performing this parody hit? In a year rich in musicals (Wonka, The Color Purple), the irony is to see none break through in this hand-made category.