Inflation rises to 3.5% in September and the rise in food prices stagnates at more than 10%

The general CPI rises due to the increase in fuel prices, to which is added this month the cost of the electricity bill, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) on September 28.

Personal fuels and lubricants have become more expensive by 10.1% so far this year, to which is added this month the rise in the cost of electricity, compared to the drops that both products experienced just a year ago. The price of electricity is far from its historical highs after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, but it is falling less than last year, which is now putting upward pressure on the CPI.

Also influencing, to a lesser extent, is the stability of prices for combined passenger transport last month compared to the decrease recorded in September 2022, according to the organization that publishes today the data confirmed with the breakdown of the consumption groups that influenced the general price increase.

The rise in energy, the group that has the most influence on prices in general, pushes the indicator upwards and does not compensate for the contribution to the lower cost of tourist packages whose price moderates with the end of the tourist season in greater measure than a year ago. Clothing and footwear has also contained the general CPI because the autumn/winter fashion season has come out with more affordable prices than last year.

Although the interannual rate has increased by almost one percentage point, the monthly increase (comparison of September prices with respect to August) is contained at 0.2%, the second lowest increase since February and three tenths less than a month ago.

The annual rate of core inflation, which excludes the most volatile price variation of energy and unprocessed food, decreased three tenths, to 5.8%, placing its difference with the general CPI at more than two points and its lowest rate since June 2022.

The estimated annual variation rate of the harmonized consumer price index (HICP) stood at 3.3%, nine tenths above that registered the previous month. The estimated monthly variation of the IPCA was 0.6%.

The price of food, for its part, rose by 10.5% year-on-year, still with the VAT reduction on some basic foods in the shopping basket in force, and accumulated 18 consecutive months of double-digit increases.

The most pronounced increase is that of olive oil, which has increased by 67% in the last 12 months, followed by the increase in the price of sugar (40.5%), potatoes (20.5%). rice (18.5%) and cakes (18.2%). Olive oil has become more expensive by 10.1% in September of this year compared to the month of August and its price has multiplied by more than two since March 2021, with an increase of 136.6%.

Along with the above, many other foods registered double-digit year-on-year increases in their prices, such as fruit and vegetable juices (16.5%); jams and jams (15.5%), pork (14.4%); breakfast cereals (14.1%); other meats (13.5%); whole milk (13%); fresh legumes and vegetables (11.7%); eggs (11.5%); skimmed milk (11.3%) and dried fish and seafood and butter, both with increases of 11.1%.

Compared to food, which led the year-on-year price increases, what became cheaper in the ninth month of the year compared to September 2022 was electricity (-38.3%); other oils (-32.7%); butane and propane (-32.9%); natural gas (-23.3%) and combined passenger transport (-15.4%).

What rose the most in price in the month of September compared to the previous month was olive oil (10.1%) and liquid fuels (7.1%), while what fell the most were tourist packages (- 22.1%).

Among the groups with the most influence on the increase in the annual rate, housing stands out - the expenses associated with housing, not the price of the house itself, mainly the electricity bill -, which rises almost five points, up to - 13.1%, due to the increase in electricity prices compared to the decrease registered in September 2022. The transport rate, which places its rate at 3.8%, more than two and a half points above that of the last month due to the increase in the price of fuels and lubricants for personal vehicles, which fell in the same month of 2022, along with the stability of prices for combined passenger transport, compared to the decrease recorded in September of the previous year.

On the other hand, leisure and culture dropped, with a rate of 5.0%, two points lower than the previous month, due to the greater drop in tourist packages compared to September of last year. Clothing and footwear, with a rate of 1.2%, one point lower than the previous month, is due to the fact that the increase in prices due to the entry of the new season is more moderate than in September 2022.

The monthly increase in the CPI in September was a consequence, among other factors, of the increase in the cost of fuel, electricity and food, which rose 0.5% due to the increase in the price of oils and fats and legumes and vegetables.

What rose the most in price in the month of September compared to the previous month was olive oil (10.1%) and liquid fuels (7.1%), while what fell the most were tourist packages (- 22.1%).

In one month, transportation increases 1.0% due to the prices of fuels and lubricants for personal vehicles; Food and non-alcoholic beverages increase by 0.5% due to the increase in the prices of legumes and vegetables and oils and fats, and clothing and footwear increase by 2.6% at the beginning of the autumn-winter season. .

Housing costs rise by 0.4% due to electricity and liquid fuels. In one month, only the leisure and culture group dropped (-3.2%), as a result of the drop in prices of tourist packages.

The annual CPI rate increases in September compared to August in all the autonomous communities, especially in Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Galicia and La Rioja, and more moderately in Navarra and Asturias.