Niger: France in support of ECOWAS but how far?

The situation in Niger is being followed very closely by the Head of State Emmanuel Macron. If France leaves to the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) the task of managing the crisis in the front line, it is not resigned to suffer the coup in Niamey as it suffered those in Bamako, Mali, and Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. On Thursday evening, Emmanuel Macron met with his ministers, his teams and the French ambassador in Niamey to assess the situation. He was also in contact with his European and American partners as well as with his ECOWAS counterparts.

In the Nigerien capital, the situation is tense. A demonstration has been announced for Friday around the "projected air base" which houses the French forces. Some 1,500 soldiers are in the whole of Niger and a large part in Niamey. French Reaper aircraft and drones are stationed there. Thursday rumors and false information circulated on social networks, targeting French forces. The American military base in Niger is located in Agadez, further north. Germany and Italy also have soldiers in the country.

At the end of the ECOWAS meeting held Thursday in Abuja, Nigeria, West African states decided to deploy a "standby force". The deployment could even take place "as soon as possible", according to Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara, in order to be able to restore constitutional order in Niamey. President-elect Mohamed Bazoum is still being held prisoner there by the putschists, along with his wife and son. The junta would threaten his life in the event of outside intervention. ECOWAS, which does not want to give in to this blackmail, is trying to increase the pressure. Is she believable? It would take several weeks to build up a cohesive military force. Other sources, however, say the time frame could be shorter. For Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, who holds the rotating presidency of ECOWAS, a "peaceful resolution" is still to be sought. The use of force would only occur as a “last resort”.

In the meantime, France, through the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, gave Thursday evening "its full support for all the conclusions" adopted at the ECOWAS summit. By insisting on these words, the Quai d'Orsay includes the military option. "We support" the work of ECOWAS, also commented US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. Westerners take care to moderate their comments so as not to be accused of interference. But they intend to defend their interests and seek to put a stop to what they consider to be the coup d'etat too many. They seek to give credibility to all the options, including that of a military operation. In this showdown, France is intransigent and considers it impossible to negotiate with the putschists.

Could the ECOWAS force appeal to Western support for a military intervention? Even if the Nigerian army takes the lead in an operation, the capacities do not seem sufficient to guarantee the ascendancy. They would lack aerial or logistical capabilities, intelligence resources... Consequently, the question of support would obviously first be posed to France, which is the country most exposed to Niger. No specific request seems to have been made yet. But Paris does not seem to have ruled out providing such support either. Everything will depend on the specific requests that will be expressed.

France is faced with a particularly sensitive dilemma: let a Bamako-Ouagadougou-Niamey alliance of putschist regimes more or less supported by Russia take hold and abandon all democratic hope in the Sahel, or try to regain control with the risks that this includes. For now, the risk of inaction is considered the most serious. The possibility of seeing Wagner's influence spread further in the region is considered real. Moreover, the French diplomats can only note the failure of all the attempts at mediation carried out since July 26 by the African authorities.