“Netanyahu is not ready to abandon his armed offensive”: the delicate issues of a new truce in Gaza

Amélie Férey is a researcher in political science and international relations at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). His work focuses in particular on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

LE FIGARO.- Ismaïl Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas, must go to Egypt, a country involved in mediating the conflict between Israel and Hamas, to discuss a ceasefire in Gaza. These negotiations suggest a second pause in the conflict. What about talks of a truce?

Amélie FÉREY. - The main issue in the negotiations crystallizes around the demands of Hamas, which is demanding an immediate ceasefire. The Islamist movement is seeking to reorganize its troops and regain strength, by gathering fuel and supplies. Weakened by the relentless strikes by the IDF for two months, Hamas seeks above all to ensure its survival, presenting an end to the fighting as a sine qua none condition for the release of the hostages it still holds. Since the last release last November, the remaining prisoners are partly civilian hostages, including elderly men who suffer from chronic illnesses. Their ranks also include female soldiers of the Israeli army who guarded the checkpoints attacked by Islamist fighters on October 7. In return for this release, Hamas also hopes to have control of the list of Palestinian political prisoners detained in the Jewish state and who could be released by Israel.

On the Israeli side, does Benjamin Netanyahu intend to stop hostilities?

The Israeli political scene is very complex. The Jewish state is preparing for the elections and after Netanyahu, who has no interest in the war stopping. The head of state affirmed that he would not leave until the offensive against Hamas ends with the eradication of the movement. Currently, the Israeli head of state is instead making beacon calls to the Israeli extreme right and seeking to give new impetus to the military offensive, the outcome of which remains uncertain. Mohammed Deïf [leader of the armed Hamas militia, editor's note] and Yahya Sinwar [leader of Hamas and alleged mastermind of October 7, editor's note] have not yet been killed. The weakening of Hamas is not yet obvious.

Does the Israeli Prime Minister enjoy unanimous support among his population for a ceasefire?

The debate over the extension of the military operation is fracturing Israeli society. On the one hand, the hostage families are putting pressure on the Prime Minister because they would like to see their loved ones again. The IDF has also come under fire since the death of three Israeli hostages, shot dead by the Israeli army while waving a white flag. The Israeli military targeting system is being questioned, especially after the revelations of the use of artificial intelligence to suggest targets. We must also take into account the number of Hebrew soldiers who fall under Hamas bullets: 132 soldiers have been killed since the start of operations. In Gaza, the war is urban, and the Israeli infantry is more exposed to attacks from the Islamist movement. But the cessation of bombing divides: within the Israeli population, when some plead in favor of a ceasefire to repatriate soldiers, others demand more bombing to allow the Israeli army to continue its offensive. Some go even further to state that the remaining hostages should be sacrificed so that Hamas can be permanently eradicated.

Still others propose reoccupying Gaza. In effect, this would mean moving Gazans who survived the bombs to the neighboring Sinai desert, which is located in Egypt. This hypothesis is a dark scenario for the country, which also weighs in the balance of negotiations. The kingdom fears that this transfer of population will be permanent, and is therefore putting pressure on Hamas for a ceasefire.