Israel-Hamas conflict: why Egypt refuses to welcome refugees from Gaza

The Israeli army, the Tsahal, launched its “iron saber” operation, which must destroy Hamas, author of a thousand murders on the outskirts of the Gaza Strip, ten days after its offensive in Israel. Its armored vehicles, massed at the border, are preparing to enter and carry out a ground operation. In order to avoid civilian casualties, and to distinguish between Gazans and Hamas fighters, the IDF asked civilians to evacuate the north of the Gaza Strip to the south, contiguous to Egypt. “The people remaining in this northern part will be considered terrorists, and easier to eliminate” by the IDF, analyzes Fabrice Balanche, lecturer in geography at the University of Lyon 2*.

A million people were displaced in a week, the United Nations (UN) said. Some, however, are said to be forcibly held by Hamas, which wants to use them as human shields. Furthermore, humanitarian aid is blocked in Egypt, which wants to transport it inside the Gaza Strip, but refuses to welcome refugees on its soil. The inhabitants of the Gaza Strip must “stay on their land”, insisted last Thursday, the Egyptian President, Abdel Fatah Al-Sissi, candidate for his re-election in mid-December 2023. However, some of the refugees have settled in Rafah, one of the seven exit points from Gaza, and the only one with access to Egypt.

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“Repelling the inhabitants of Gaza is Israel’s preferred scenario,” explains Fabrice Balanche. The latter, already invited to go south, would thus gradually be encouraged to flee towards Egypt. “Israel believes that we cannot separate Hamas from Gazan society, because it controls education and has ‘Hamasized’ the population,” adds the expert. Thus, the population would be sent, by force, to Egypt and would rid the Hebrew state of an enemy on its borders. A solution that Cairo categorically refuses. “Egypt has already been in this situation during the last Israeli operations and does not want to repeat it,” confirms Emmanuel Dupuy, president of the Institute Foresight and Security in Europe (IPSE).

Egypt offers several reasons for welcoming the 2.2 million Gazans. Safety first. Egyptian President Abdel Fatah Al-Sisi took power by deposing Mohamed Morsi, elected from an Islamist party from the Muslim Brotherhood. “President Al-Sissi is at war against the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is an emanation,” notes Emmanuel Dupuy. The presidency fears the importation of Hamas fighters, which would swell the ranks of the Islamists, against whom it is at war.

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Marshal Al-Sissi also fears the specter of a new “Black September”. In September 1970, Palestinian terrorists, refugees in Jordan since 1948, the creation of Israel, or 1967, the Israeli victory in the Six-Day War, attempted to kill King Hussein of Jordan. A few days later, three planes were hijacked. For several years, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) had been creating a real state within a state, until it took one step too far: this attempted coup d'état. The Jordanian army reacted vigorously and shelled the refugee camps, until the PLO was expelled to Lebanon.

The massive settlement of Palestinian refugees, combined with armed operations, was one of the triggering factors of the Lebanese civil war. “It’s a very feared scenario,” confirms Fabrice Balanche. Abdullah II of Jordan, son of Hussein, warned Friday against “any attempt to displace Palestinians from all Palestinian lands or provoke their displacement.” He added that "the crisis should not spread to neighboring countries and aggravate the refugee issue."

Finally, the Sinai region, contiguous to Israel, where these refugees could initially be welcomed, is in the grip of an Islamist insurgency. Hamas fighters, infiltrated in the columns of refugees, could swell the ranks of “Ansaïr Baït al-Maqdis”, renamed “Sinai Province” after its allegiance to the Islamic State in 2014. Its former name meant supporter of Jerusalem . “They want to obtain the liberation of the Al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem, and are campaigning for the ‘Palestinization’ of Jerusalem,” recalls Emmanuel Dupuy.

Cairo can also raise the cost of welcoming the 2.2 million Gazans. “Egypt is an overpopulated country with a fragile economy and, in fact, does not want to see a new mass of poor people enter its territory,” notes Lorenzo Navone, author of a thesis on the Egyptian-Gaza border. “Egypt is currently blocking this welcome to raise the stakes, and ask for the greatest possible aid,” believes Fabrice Balanche.

An increase in American military aid, Western subsidies and funds from UN agencies could also encourage him to lift his reservations about this welcome. “Egypt receives considerable military aid from the United States through agreements. In other words: military supplies in exchange for peace. Egypt does not want to give up this aid, which is fundamental for the military in power,” explains Lorenzo Navone. In addition, “Egypt receives 25 billion dollars annually from Saudi Arabia,” underlines Fabrice Balanche. A lever of pressure that the Americans, allies of Saudi Arabia, could activate to influence President Al-Sissi.

Also read: Egypt and the United States are working to open humanitarian corridors to Gaza

However, such a welcome would have another cost: that of Egypt's reputation in the Arab-Muslim world. “Egypt would be accused of having betrayed the Palestinian cause,” judges Fabrice Balanche. “Rhetorically, Egypt opposes the expulsion of Palestinians from Gaza and supports them in their struggle to obtain a sovereign state,” recalls Lorenzo Navone. A position which is also that of the Arab League, based in Cairo. Welcoming these refugees, whose probability of returning to Gaza would be low, would de facto confirm the expulsion of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip. Which would not fail to be condemned by the Arab neighbors.

Beyond a diplomatic disapproval, Marshal Al-Sissi would also expose himself, in the event of welcoming the Gazans, to a challenge from the Egyptian streets. “The street remains pro-Palestinian, even if Egyptian leaders accept the Camp David agreements, which established the normalization of relations with Israel,” notes Fabrice Balanche. The “iron saber” operation, which must destroy Hamas, could therefore also weaken one of Israel’s main allies in the region, Egypt.

Fabrice Balanche is also an associate researcher at the Washington Institute (think tank). A specialist in the Middle East, he is the author of Atlas of the Near East (2017) and Sectarianism in Syria's Civil War (2018).