Hamas attack in Israel: why Hezbollah has not (yet) launched an offensive

Didier Leroy is a researcher at the Royal Military School of Belgium and the Free University of Brussels (ULB). He defended a doctoral thesis on the ideological and structural evolution of Lebanese Hezbollah.

LE FIGARO.- Hamas launched a raid from Gaza on Saturday October 7, which led to the death of more than 900 Israelis. Its ally Hezbollah has remained eerily calm, apart from a few rockets towards the Golan Heights. Why such restraint?

DIDIER LEROY. - Lebanese Hezbollah did not fail to congratulate this member of the “axis of resistance” for this audacious operation, which is in line with the agenda shared by all the militias supported by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards in Iran. Hezbollah fired a few rockets at IDF military positions (the Israeli army, editor's note), the Chebaa farms, in a sulphurous zone separating southern Lebanon and Israel. But shootings are common in the region, so no red lines have been crossed.

On the other hand, what raised tensions a notch was the attempted infiltration of several individuals from Lebanon. They were recognized as belonging to Islamic Jihad (a Palestinian militia based in Gaza and Lebanon, Editor’s note) which partly clears Hezbollah. In any case, no Palestinian action can be undertaken in the blue line (the Lebanese-Israeli border, Editor's note) without the tacit approval of Hezbollah. Israel carefully examines this border to prevent potential future incursions. We are in a sort of in-between where the tension increases, but slowly.

In my opinion, the Hezbollah command is carefully monitoring the civil disobedience cursor in the West Bank, and in the mixed (Jewish and Arab, Editor's note) cities of Israel. Hamas called for a general mobilization, that is to say a new intifada, with the hope of weakening the Israeli security apparatus by multiplying the fronts. Clearly, it is the evolution of internal fronts that external actors, such as Hezbollah, are monitoring and which could change their assessment and their possible entry on the scene.

Also read: Israel: why a ground operation in the Gaza Strip promises to be particularly complex

The only thing that encourages Hezbollah to restrain is Lebanon's economic situation. The country has been bloodless since 2019 and hopes for the return of Gulf funds after the détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran under the auspices of China. In addition, the exploitation of offshore gas fields has just begun. If Hezbollah were to provoke Israel, and ultimately bring about the destruction of part of the country, at a time when Lebanon has economic hope, it would be very badly received. The country is very divided on the Palestinian question, even divided in two. Hezbollah would then have to do battle with the IDF and half of the Lebanese population.

Can we estimate Hezbollah’s arsenal?

Hezbollah is an ally of Iran, which explains why part of its arsenal is of Iranian manufacture, and the other of local manufacture. Hassan Nasrallah, the secretary general of Hezbollah, announced that its armed wing now has 100,000 fighters. This figure is undoubtedly exaggerated; most analysts cite 25,000 full-time soldiers, around whom reservists gravitate. Its arsenal also includes 130,000 projectiles, rockets and missiles, as well as tanks, drones, launchers, etc. Hezbollah is the most formidable militia actor in the entire Middle East.

If an insurgency broke out in the West Bank and Hezbollah attacked from Lebanon, could the IDF cope?

The Israeli military hopes to avoid this scenario at all costs! It still has, let us not forget, a certain technological superiority. It still has F-35s, fifth generation aircraft, but also a very efficient and tripartite anti-aircraft defense system: the iron dome, for unsophisticated rockets, the David sling system for medium-range missiles and the boom system for long-range missiles. For several years, the Israeli army has also been promoting laser technology suitable for anti-aircraft defense. Which could be an asset, because each Iron Dome missile costs several tens of thousands of dollars, while the laser costs five dollars.

Israel's main weakness is the restlessness of its own society. In some mixed regions, we will see greater polarization between Jewish and Arab individuals. But within Jewish society itself, we have still witnessed unprecedented demonstrations with justice reform. Israel is therefore a strong military actor, but feverish and weakened. Its main danger is to see the bond between citizens eroded.