Faced with Western reluctance, Ukraine announces the production of its own long-range missiles

In its war against Russia, Ukraine has never stopped adapting. To overcome its initial technological deficit, Kiev transformed intelligence drones into attack drones, adapted its MiG-29s to various Western weapons or even reconfigured armored vehicles captured on the battlefield for engineering missions. But Ukraine is probably also capable of innovation. With a strong and efficient defense industry, the country could have produced its own long-range missile.

On August 23, a Russian S-400 air defense system was seriously damaged in western Crimea by "a new Ukrainian missile", in the words of Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of the Ukraine.

On August 31, on Telegram, President Volodymyr Zelensky himself spoke about the production of a new weapon capable of hitting a target 700 km away, noting that it was developed and produced by the Ukrainian Ministry of Strategic Industries , without further details. Quickly, Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov and the specialized blog The War Zone echoed a persistent rumor: the weapon in question could well be a Neptune anti-ship missile, modified to play a land attack role.

These Ukrainian-made missiles have been well known to observers of the conflict since in April 2022, two of them sunk the flagship of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea, the cruiser Moskva. Entering service just before the war, they had until now only been used for the missions for which they were designed: to strike ships. But "like many anti-ship missiles, it is a natural candidate for its use for land strikes", underlines Joseph Henrotin, editor-in-chief of the journal Defense and International Security and research fellow at the Center for Analysis and Forecasting of international risks.

The main difference between an anti-ship missile and a surface-to-surface missile lies in its guidance system. The first is guided by radar, to hit a moving target. To transform it into a ground-to-ground missile, a GPS or inertial system (using acceleration and rotation sensors) must be integrated into it. “GPS is accurate but can be vulnerable to jamming and the reverse is true for inertial, an area in which Ukraine has expertise,” notes the specialist.

As early as April, an anonymous Ukrainian official told The War Zone that kyiv was working to convert its Neptune missiles into land-based missiles, but that it lacked elements for the guidance system. He then estimated that its range could be extended to 360 km (against less than 300 km for the anti-ship version). At the end of August, another Ukrainian official told the blog that the modified Neptune was well produced and could hit beyond 400 km if the payload was reduced.

This range remains much less than the 700 km mentioned by Volodymyr Zelensky. This would offer Ukraine perspectives never seen before. Because the West has always refused to deliver long-range missiles, so as not to give the Ukrainians the possibility of hitting Russian territory and risking a higher bid. Until today, kyiv had to make do with American MLRS and HIMARS, without ATACMS missiles, which limits their range to 80 km. Or even Scalp/Storm Shadow missiles (250 km) and GLSDB guided rockets (150 km).

A missile of greater range, whether a modified Neptune or a new projectile, would present significant added value for Ukraine. For several weeks, kyiv has been carrying out an increasingly intense campaign of drone bombings in Russian territory, as far as the capital Moscow. Such a missile could strike just as far, but with an explosive charge “higher than that of the drones used so far”, underlines Joseph Henrotin.

Above all, “the psychological and political effect would be important, probably more than the tactical effect”, advances Léo Péria-Peigné, researcher at Ifri and specialist in armaments. With its drones alone, Ukraine is said to have destroyed or damaged fighter planes and several Ilyushin-76, Russian jumbo jets, at Pskov airport in late August. Repeated attacks have already forced Russia to build air defense towers around Moscow. Satellite images also showed Tu-95 strategic bombers protected by car tires at Engels airfield. A Ukrainian long-range missile "will force the Russians to deploy even more resources," said Léo Péria-Peigné.

On the other hand, even if the range would allow it, kyiv “is certainly not going to use it to target Moscow”, estimates the researcher. In fact, why "waste precious resources" when the same effects can be achieved with drones at a lower cost? Especially since the production of this type of missile is as laborious as it is expensive. The Ukrainians “can produce a certain number of them, to hit valuable targets, as they have been doing since the start of the war, notes Léo Péria-Peigné. But I doubt they have the means to produce thousands.

Regarding the Neptune, Ukraine “started mass-producing it from 2021, in anti-ship version, but we do not know in what proportions”, recalls Joseph Henrotin. "It is possible that production rates will increase," he said, however. At the end of August, President Zelensky had also indicated to a famous Ukrainian talk show that his country had considerably increased the production of this missile in recent weeks. Without specifying whether it was its anti-ship or land version.