Handelskrigen is far from over

Many breathe a sigh of relief after that Us president Donald Trump and China's leader Xi Jinping on Saturday announced a 90-day cease-fire in handelskrigen. Markets worldwide reacted positively after the meeting between the two state leaders during the G20 summit in Argentina, and both oil prices and stock prices rose.

Henrik Stålhane Hiim. Show more

But handelskrigen between the united STATES and China is far from over. The biggest grievances felt toward the remains, and if the negotiations do not succeed, probably will the united STATES step up the conflict. The increasing rivalry between the great powers, and the increasingly strong links between security issues and the economy, will also contribute to handelskrigen can be difficult to resolve.

if statements from China and the united STATES are slightly different, see the agreement to have led to some concrete results. From the United states is the main innrømmelsen to postpone the introduction of even higher tariffs on chinese goods. China should, on their side, have agreed to buy more american goods. In addition, China has agreed to introduce measures to stop the export of the narcotic drug Fentanyl, which requires many lives in the united STATES.

the Agreement touches not, however, the most important and the most difficult to the grievances felt toward. Trump has laid emphasis on the United states ' trade deficit with China, but several of his advisors are far more concerned about the forced transfer of technology, alleged chinese technology theft, chinese industrial policy and subsidies, as well as barriers to trade. Although the parties now get a respite, it will be very difficult to come to an agreement.

- such A trade war means that you shoot yourself in the foot

China has long sent signals that they want to end handelskrigen, but have perceived the United states ' claims that are both vague and too wide-ranging. If the united STATES requires major changes in chinese industrial policy, it will probably be impossible for China to reach the united STATES in the face.

China's leader Xi Jinping has drawn a picture of himself as a strong man, and can not appear as if he yields to american pressure. During the Xi have the economic reforms in China is also well on the way stopped up, and partistaten have taken more control over the economy. It is doubtful whether Xi wants to implement major reforms in order to placate the united STATES.

growing the rivalry between China and the united STATES form an important backdrop for handelskrigen, and will make it more complicated to reach a forhandlingsløsning.

In its new security strategy designates the united STATES China as a rival, and refer to the country as "revisjonistisk". The united STATES says further that rivalry with the major powers – and not terrorism – poses the greatest security threat the country faces. Although Russia is also mentioned, there is little doubt that it is China, us leaders consider that their hovedmotstander. The strategy involves a fundamental shift in U.s. China policy, and contributes to the relationship between the two countries now are at their most strained in decades.

the Dance around the Donald Trump Comment

As a part of the new policy, the united STATES has set in motion a series of other measures to increase the pressure on China. Even though the collaboration is still in an early phase, the united STATES has, among other things, advocated to strengthen security ties to, and between, Japan, Australia and India through the so-called "Quad"cooperation. The united STATES also moves military resources to Asia, and strengthens its presence in the South China sea.

U.s. leaders have further connected the security policy and economy closer together. Ahead of the G20 meeting suggested vice president Mike Pence that China must not only come with economic concessions to achieve an agreement with the united STATES, but also change its policy in the South China sea, and stop the alleged påvirkningskampanjer in western countries. Pence came up with a number of strong accusations against China, and said that it was up to China to avoid a new Cold War.

In China, there are many who therefore see handelskrigen as part of a broader american oppdemmingspolitikk, where the US in fact trying to keep China down. Even if this perception is exaggerated, it is understandable that chinese leaders see handelskrigen as a part of a larger american strategy.

Whether or not the united STATES and China will be able to find an appointment will mainly be settled in the united STATES. It still looks to be significant differ internally in the Trump-government, and if more moderate voices win out, it is possible that countries can find a compromise. If the hawks on the other hand wins out, it will likely persist.

Even if handelskrigen should have a solution in this instance, the financial gnisningene between the united STATES and China after all to judge, nevertheless, continue. It is unlikely that all the grievances felt toward – which basically is about american dissatisfaction with China's economic model – solve.

Handelskrigen no one can win the Debate

In addition to handelskrigen Casinoslot are also a number of american initiatives in the works, as for example sikkerhetsdrevne restrictions on China's access to invest in the united STATES. The increased mistrust of China is in no way just a Trump-phenomenon: Even if Trump goes very far in creating fiendebilder, there is support for a tougher line towards China, both among democrats and in large parts of the american business community.

There is no reason to to believe that the broader rivalry between China and the united STATES will decrease. China is a major power in growth, while the united STATES is a great power in relative decline. The turmoil in the united STATES over China's rising international power is strong. China's leaders are on his side troubled that the united STATES should attempt to hold the country back. The battle for influence between the two great powers are about to grow in a variety of venues.

In the years to come will, therefore, probably a number of economic issues, investment and trade, are affected stronger by the rivalry between the two great powers. Security considerations will increasingly trump economic considerations, and the great power struggle for influence is waged with economic powers.