The Senate will likely require a procedural vote Thursday to launch debate on the bill to create a commission to study the January riot. That vote requires 60 yeas. A handful of Republican senators will probably vote to start debate -- joining all Democrats. But it's doubtful they get to 60 yeas.
This will infuriate Democrats. They'll argue Republicans do not need to arrive at the base of Jan. 6.
Democrats will guide their people ire in Republicans. But Democratic leaders may use some of the frustration of Republicans as a leash to convince Democratic senators to eventually end the filibuster.
It is one thing for Democrats to oppose altering the filibuster on D.C. statehood. But some Democrats concede independently the riot was this kind of atrocity that blocking the production of this Jan. 6 commission could possibly be worthy of blowing the filibuster.
Remember that Thursday's vote is procedural, just to start debate on the bill. It is not an actual vote on the invoice itself. But this vote could function as a barometer as to whether there is a opportunity to eventually progress this invoice, and more importantly, the future of the filibuster.
Halting the Jan. 6 commission bill could function as a gateway for Democrats to change filibuster provisions and possibly pass bills in their without Republican assistance.
Granted, all 50 Senate Democrats aren't on the same page on many or those invoices yet. But upending that the filibuster could put the Democrats a little nearer to advancing their agenda, forever shifting the filibuster and leaving the Republicans supporting -- if Democrats stick together.
The Senate will not vote to change the filibuster Thursday. Along with also the procedural vote on the commission is not locked in yet. But today could end up being quite telling about the future of the filibuster.