Four simple rules of conduct that do to the IS-leader al-Bagdadi elude U.S. intelligence

a Little more than a week has passed since the ICE allerhögste leader Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi took the blade from his mouth and appeared in a prerecorded video.

The eighteen minutes long tiraden that was forwarded to ICE propagandakanal al-Furqan has received enormous attention in the media world and have been analysed into the smallest detail of the great powers underrättelseexperter.

It is noted that the ”caliph” is well-fed - is clearly rounder than when he appeared in public last, nearly five years ago, in June 2014. Then spake the ICE-the leader in al-Nurimoskén in the iraqi city of Mosul, which has been conquered by the IS-terrorists in a blixtattack.

in Addition, is the now 48-year-old al-Bagdadi bleksiktig, something that indicates that he is mainly staying indoors, and his long beard has turned gray. Something he partially tried to hide with hennafärg. According to the website islamqa.info, providing advice on interpretations of the Qur'an, is opposed to scripture coloring your hair except with henna.

Compared with segervissheten the summer of 2014, the situation is completely different for ICE in general and for al-Bagdadi in particular. ICE has been with all his självutropade ”caliphate”, which, five years ago, covering a land area comparable to that of the Uk.

Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi, the ”caliph” himself, has lost his entire inner circle of advisers and ideologists, a total of about forty people. They have tracked up and killed by the front of the all american irregular.

In his latest speech, the ICE-conductor filmed at an unknown location, and for good reason. The 48-year-old al-Bagdadi is now known as the world's most hunted man. The US administration has put a price on his head. The $ 25 million – 240 million sek according to the current exchange rate – goes to the person who can give such information to the IS leader can be arrested, dead or alive.

But the staggering reward so far has not attracted anyone to gossip about al-Bagdadis residence. Nor has it helped that the USA-the alliance's signalspaningsflyg and drones constantly find themselves in the borderlands between Syria and Iraq, where al-Bagdadi is assumed to reside.

The irakiskkurdiska news agency Rudaw interviewed one of the world's foremost experts on ICE, the iraqi historian and samhällsforskaren Hisham al-Hashimi. According to him, there are really only three places in Syria/Iraq, where al-Bagdadi can be. In other parts of the region have iraqi and american intelligence services in virtually full control.

The three areas that al-Hashimi indicates is ökenområdena in Anbarprovinsen in western Iraq, the parched riverbed of Wadi Houran, which extends over 30 miles from the Iraqi border with saudi Arabia to the Euphrates river, and ökentrakterna to the east of the syrian city of Homs. A fourth possibility is that Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi taken refuge to the ”Muhammedhalvön”, IS-followers name in saudi Arabia.

the American military intelligence have been hunting Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi day and night for nine years, ever since he was appointed leader of the Islamic state in Iraq (ISI). It was in may 2010. His predecessor, Abu Omar al-Bagdadi, had been killed by us forces.

Abu Bakr al-Bagdadi has been declared dead at least half a dozen times during these years. How can it be that he had managed to escape from the constant försåten from the world's most sophisticated intelligence agency? According to the radio - and tv-company BBC, who consulted british experts, depends mainly on the ICE-leader adamantly followed four simple rules:

1. Stay away from all things digital.

2. Call no call.

3. Do not use the satellite phone.

3. Keep yourself in constant motion - never stay more than two nights in the same place.

al-Bagdadis advantage is that he has the help of veterans in Saddam Hussein's intelligence services, who have expertise in moving under the radar, and in addition, good local knowledge, unlike the enemy signalspanare and drönaroperatörer.

the BBC also points out that the astronomical reward that the US military is not necessarily something irresistible lure: the fall for the temptation to sell ICE-leader to the enemy, will certainly be terribly rich, but may also expect to spend the rest of his life to escape the fanatical IS-sympathizers.