Ewa Stenberg: Busch Thors success närdes of M's crisis of confidence

– the Rise came after Ebba Busch Thor with great energy and a certain sense of humor began to appear in the tevedebatter and hearings. She is a more important explanation for their success in the elections in 2018 than the very popular party leader Alf Svensson was in 1998 – when the party hit a record 11.8 per cent. 2018 got KD more modest 6.3 percent, but a record percentage of voters entered to the party explanation.

– KD has replaced a large part of the electorate. Two-thirds are completely new and they are further to the right than on the Alf Svenssons time. Rekordfå, only one-fifth of voters, goes regularly to church. KD-voters were attracted above all by the party's policy. Social welfare, pensions and gender equality were also popular questions. ”A soft policy in the tough packaging”, summarizes the valanalysen. However, many KD-constituents, in addition to migration, integration and criminal policy high on the agenda, and where will they find do not have the policies they sought.

– It creates tension between the members and the electorate. The party has democratically decided to work for the reunification of war refugees who have received residence permits in Sweden. A majority of voters dislike this and would rather see a tighter policy. There are KD members that want to go in the same direction, and they have received new arguments of väljaropinionen. Analysgruppens conclusion stop, however, to warn of a more generous policy.

" Yes." The conservatives crisis of confidence is another important reason. M has made several abrupt changes since Fredrik Reinfeldt resigned as prime minister. ”Many times has it been the Conservatives themselves who have shot themselves in the foot,” it says in the party's election assessment statement. Decemberöverenskommelsen and unwillingness to act as a real opposition reduced trust significantly Moderates.

– Despite the fact that the previous KD-leader Göran Hägglund was a key person in Decemberöverenskommelsen concluded in 2014 so have Ebba Busch Thor managed to profile itself as the party that broke it. She was the only alliansledaren who wanted to unseat the government, Löfven and try to take over power. Busch Thor has continued to be clear in the regeringsfrågan. Valanalysgruppen advise her to stick with the Alliance. But KD has just opened for the negotiations with the SD in terms of subject matter, which C and L dislike strongly. Busch Thor keeps högerkursen, which so far appears to continue to pay dividends with the voters.