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EU exit : The Brexit can take years

The "No Deal", the all feared, this is off the table. Good. This provides relief. But nothing is gained. Europe had hoped for from the vote marathon these days in the British Parliament to clarify how it goes now with the Brexit-Drama. Nothing will come of it. Instead, the uncertainty grows. The way to an orderly exit from the EU is not more to see.

The Vote to follow – up with some quirky deviations from the expected script. On Tuesday evening, the Parliament had rejected Theresa May negotiated exit contract for a second Time. Yesterday, Wednesday evening, the chamber of deputies by a clear majority against a "No Deal"-Brexit. Evening follows on Thursday, as forecast, the third vote on an extension of the deadline on the 29. March.

But what About for an extension to decide, in the house of Commons? A few weeks before the European elections end of may? Or until the constituent session of the new Parliament on 2. July? Depending on the Interpretation of the British must be up to one or the other date to get out of the EU. Or you must vote in spite of Brexit Referendum again – and that would push the absurdity to the extreme. anyway, if you don't want to stay in the EU.

This leaves room for a maximum of two to three months extension. Only, what is the purpose of this additional time? In the majority of conditions will change in this additional period, nothing. Because if this Chance would be, he would have done in previous weeks.

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is that clear do not know, and the majorities what they want: Mays exit the contract. No "No Deal"-exit. But to Remain in the EU. In the recent flash survey, only 38 per cent spoke in favour of the Brexit to cancel and stay in the EU. Still less that a second Referendum: 29% your choice.

a couple of weeks ' extension is nothing to reach

Neither in the Parliament nor in the population, however, there is a positive majority, what the government should do now. Certainly, for an extension of the deadline, there will be a majority, because that appears to be currently the only way how to prevent a "No Deal"-Chaos. What this period should serve, in addition, neither the members nor the citizens agreed.

This clarification is necessary to estimate how long the extension should be. It comes to modify the present outlet of the contract? Or, for that matter, to win time for re-elections in the UK, a new government may take a new approach to Brexit? Or, for that matter, the future relationship of the UK to the EU to negotiate? Depending on to weeks to months or to years.

to make it short: With a few weeks of extension is reached. The EU does not want to undo the negotiated contract. To The Right. There's nothing to suggest that there is a clear majority in the British Parliament would be established, when a certain Paragraph would be changed.

the UK needs a "Game Changer", a new direction. The government has lost control of the process. May will not get any majority for your contract. The pressure medium, with which you can achieve this wanted – the threat that otherwise the unloved "No Deal" come -you beat the Parliament yesterday, out of the Hand with the vote against this "No Deal".

Now, the Parliament should have the direction of the point

Now, the Parliament should take the responsibility and the afterlife of the party, a bipartisan majority of the trenches are looking for a contract, how the future relationship of the UK to the EU. Labour is, for example, for a customs Union.

But to this Unity, in which direction it should go, in the British Parliament and then a new Treaty with the EU to negotiate, not enough for a few weeks. This will take probably two years. Or longer.

Yes, the British are now an extension on the 29. March. But only as a subterfuge to avoid the "No Deal". They can not agree on how much time you want to extend. A month would support according to the survey, 52 percent. For more than three months there is no majority.

Either the debate will reveal this contradiction. Or will the EU tell the British that they can agree to an extension only if you know to what purpose. It is an Illusion is to be hoped that the British are going to change your mind and stay.

More about

EU exit British house of Brexit rejects without agreement

With all the votes and negotiations has not changed on the decisive obstacle to a solution: The British don't know what you want. You may not agree but what you want. The Brexit will occupy Europe for a long time. And discourage, to take care of the more important questions of the future. This can take years. Time, the has Europe. And can't afford it, given the threat to its success basics by the changing world-disorder.

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