(Obi.en): oil prices and oil production decide in broad terms how much money the state has money to spend, how big the surplus is and how much that can be transferred to its oil wealth.
the Government now believes that oil prices on average in the year will be 578 million. At the moment the on the 690 million.
For 2019, the government assumed an oil price of 583 million, up 20.5 per cent from the 484 million, which the government believed in for the next year in the revised national budget.
In the budget for 2019 is petroleum revenues estimated at 312,8 billion, equivalent to 21,9 per cent of the total revenues of mnok 1 430,4 billion.
The total surplus is estimated at 279 billion, up from 141,3 billion in the year. It is respectively 50,4 and 97.5 percent more than what the government now think it will be in years.
How much oljepenger? The size of its oil wealth is crucial because the government controls the use of oljepenger after the so-called Fiscal rule.
the Fiscal rule that the budget, when one holds the proceeds from oil activities outside, may have a deficit equivalent to the expected real return (quantified at 3 percent) of the capital in the Government petroleum fund at the beginning of the budget year.
the Transfer from its oil wealth is estimated to 232,5 billion, down from 255,4 billion in saldert budget 2018.
the Use of oljepenger
the Use of oil income, be held, however, unchanged as a percentage of the mainland economy and is projected to 231,2 billion in 2019, as measured by the structural, non-oil budget deficit. It is equal to 2,66 per cent of the estimated capital in the Government pension fund global at the beginning of the year.
This is 29,8 billion during the 3-prosentbanen.
the Use of oil income amounts to 44 000 per capita. Every eighth krone used over public budgets, it will be retrieved now from the pension fund. Realveksten in underlying central government expenditure is estimated to 1.3 per cent. For comparison, GDP growth for mainland Norway is estimated to be 2.7 per cent.
its oil wealth
By the end of 2018, the government assumed that its oil wealth will have a value of 8.700 billion. The value has been over 8.700 billion in the autumn, but now is on 8.430 billion.
By the end of 2019 think the government now that its oil wealth will have increased to 9.195 billion.
It is planned that 53,3 billion transferred to its oil wealth from the profits in 2019. Interest and dividend income is budgeted to 213,4 billion. The increase in value from the current value must thus be on the 498,3 billion.
the pension fund and pension
the Value of the state's obligations related to the alderspensjoner in the national insurance scheme can be estimated based on the payouts going forward. These estimates are sensitive to assumptions about the difference between future interest rates and wage growth, the so-called nettorenten, called it in the budget.
If one applies a nettorente of 1 per cent, as is done in the municipal sector, the value of already accrued rights to the alderspensjoner from the national insurance scheme by the end of 2018 is estimated to 8.722 billion. It is the equivalent of approximately capital in the Government pension fund global at the end of 2018, if the government hits with the estimate.
Including innenlandsdelen it is considered however that the state's total pension fund will be on 8.953 billion by the end of 2018, and 9.462 billion by the end of 2019, the equivalent of 1.785.000 money per capita.
In addition to retirement pensions, the state has obligations to fulfill - and etterlattepensjoner in the national insurance scheme and to the earned rights in the Norwegian public service pension fund. At the end of July 2018 amounted to the obligations of the Norwegian public service pension fund, in the aggregate 873 billion nok