Moldova demands demilitarization of Transnistria

Moldova is Ukraine's weakest neighbor. It is one of the poorest countries in Europe, but has the highest rate of Ukrainian refugees in terms of population. Similar to eastern Ukraine, there is also a pro-Russian separatist republic on its territory that is destabilizing the country: Transnistria. 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed there, plus 10,000 to 15,000 pro-Russian paramilitaries.

According to Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Moldova could become a new "anti-Russian project" after Ukraine. Moscow accuses the West of expanding eastward into Russia's sphere of influence. Lavrov went on to say on Thursday that there is no doubt that the West wants to make Georgia Russia's closest enemy.

Such threats add to concerns in the small country of Moldova, which aspires to be part of the European Union. In an interview with WELT, Moldovan government advisor Alexandru Flenchea is now calling for the “unconditional and complete withdrawal of Russian troops and ammunition from Moldovan territory and the demilitarization of Transnistria”.

Flenchea is responsible for peacekeeping in the Transnistrian conflict and advises Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilița. The Russian troop withdrawal is a “priority” for the government, he told WELT. Moldova has long feared for its national security. After Russia invaded the whole of Ukraine about a year ago, fears of an attack were particularly great.

Russian President Vladimir Putin wanted to conquer the entire south of Ukraine, including the port city of Odessa, and create a land corridor to Transnistria. It would have been the second attack on a sovereign country by Putin's men - and the opening of a new offensive on Ukraine not only from Russian and Belarusian soil, but also from Moldova.

Flenchea says Russian troops and paramilitary units in Transnistria "are more of a nuisance than a real threat to Ukraine due to their size and military capabilities, but pose a potential threat to Moldova's security regardless of the war in Ukraine." .

According to Moldovan intelligence chief Alexandru Musteata, the risk of a Russian attack is still high. "The question is not whether the Russian Federation will launch a new offensive against the territory of Moldova, but when," he said on state television at the end of December. A period between January and April is possible.

Flenchea puts this statement into perspective: There are currently "no signs of a direct military threat from the Russian Federation". This is mainly due to the course of the war in Ukraine: Putin is still not able to march through as he had initially imagined. The resistance of the Ukrainians also protects Moldova.

But even without a military attack on Moldovan territory, Russia is destabilizing the small republic – directly and indirectly. But what exactly is the danger? Ana Mihailov, head of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation office in Moldova, recently told the Tagesspiegel that Russia is “less about a conventional war and more about the overthrow of the government and the pro-Russian forces taking power using so-called hybrid mechanisms – Information warfare, mass protests and the like”.

The pro-European government under President Maia Sandu is under pressure, and protests keep breaking out. "In 2023, the pro-Russian forces will try to destabilize the incumbent government," said Ion Tabarta from the NATO Information and Documentation Center in Chisinau. "They are trying to hijack our European course," he told the Balkan Insight platform.

In addition, dependence on Russian energy and food from Ukraine is affecting Moldova. According to the UN refugee agency, around hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees are registered in Moldova, more than in any other country in terms of population. In November, after Russian rocket attacks on Ukraine, there were also widespread power outages in Moldova. Inflation is around 30 percent. There is also a lack of military equipment, such as an effective air defense system.

At the end of October, a Russian missile struck the border town of Naslavcea, and in December fragments of missile debris were found in an orchard in another town near the Ukrainian border. "Moldova is not safe and cannot be as long as this war continues," says Flenchea.

Much of Moldova's military equipment is obsolete. "Given the threat of Russian missile attacks, an anti-aircraft system would really be of paramount importance," Mihailov said. But the funds are lacking.

So far, Chisinau has hardly spent any money on its own army. The budget has now been increased by 68 percent and amounts to around 1.7 billion leu (82 million euros), which corresponds to 0.55 percent of gross domestic product. But Defense Minister Anatolie Nosatii thinks that's not enough and is demanding two percent.

The West supports the country to a certain extent, with Germany supplying armored transport vehicles. However, Chisinau cannot join NATO for its own protection because the Republic of Moldova is neutral in its constitution. In the event of an attack, no one would come to the country's aid.

Some voices in the Moldovan government are already calling for neutrality to be abandoned. Skeptics warn that this could even more lead to a Russian attack. But the war in Ukraine made it painfully clear to the people of Moldova that neutrality is not a sufficient form of defence.

Now the government is trying to close its security loophole. Until then, Chisinau can only hope for a victory for Ukraine in order to deter Putin from his planned land corridor to Transnistria.