the Clear medical warnings to a society-shutting down may do more harm than good, was pulled out of a risk assessment from the national board of Health shortly before the publication.
It shows a draft risk assessment, which Ekstra Bladet has had access to.
the Report is quite central.
It appeared the day before, prime minister Mette Frederiksen closed large parts of Denmark down, and thus came to function as a stepping stone for her historic news conference 11. march.
In the draft, highlighted, among other things, that there is a lack of evidence for the effect of a shutdown of parts of society. And that it could unnecessarily increase the uncertainty in the population.
But no reservations - not a single sentence - are in the final version, which was laid out to the danes.
And it amazes, Else Smith, former director of the national board of Health.
- It is striking that it is picked out because it is after all something of the more critical. I find it hard to see what the good medical argument is that they should not be, she says.
Warnings forsvindingsnummer went on quickly:
the Draft was shared between Kåre Mølbak from the Statens Serum Institute and Søren Brostrøm from the Danish Health and medicines authority 3. march. Here were warnings still.
The final version of the risk assessment was admittedly first published 10. march, but it appears from the report, it has been made five days earlier.
That leaves a window of just 48 hours, that the authorities should have got new knowledge about nedlukningens effect, if that should be the reason that the warnings slipped out.
In the draft, is how here on the big interventions, such as to cancel large events, limiting public transport and reduce attendance at work and education.
'That is generally not good documentation for the smitteforebyggende effect of these actions.'
It also stresses that a shutdown 'in itself can help to increase public uncertainty and give the impression of greater risk than is real'.
the economy Also discussed:
'Actions as the restriction of assemblies as well as the closure of businesses, educational institutions and transport links can have significant negative societal and economic effects.'
Community - 25. may. 2020 - pm. 16:59 Mail reveals: Brostrøm warned about the harmful consequences to shut down Denmark
this is there in the risk assessment, the comprehensive approach can do more harm than good.
'As there may be a disadvantageous relationship between the harmful and beneficial effects, there will therefore be a high threshold for that, the Board will recommend the comprehensive approach as specified, but the selected parts may have its place, especially ift. to delay and reduce the epidemic's peak.'
Former director of the Danish Health and medicines authority, Else Smith, believes that the warnings should have been shown by the risk assessment.
- I do certainly. Also, because the prime minister has used the expression, that we can not wait for evidence, " she says, and also suggests that it is the public health task to put everything on the table - both things that speak for and against such a comprehensive decision to shut Denmark down.
the Danish policy - 22. may. 2020 - pm. 12:16 Mette F. switches explanation on shutdown
She can't think of good reasons for that, the Board would have chosen to take the sentences out in the final version:
- I have a hard time seeing. For I think, actually, that it makes the assessment more credible, to have good with, and that there is also some speculation, as they just do not health can support up. I find it hard to see what the good medical argument is that they should not be, says Else Smith.
the Extra Leaf has asked the national board of Health, who, when, and why the sentences were removed from the risk assessment.
- the Work to establish the regular progress reports is a process, where several employees in both the SST and SSI comes with the contribution. In the process, there will be several drafts before the formulation of the final text is ready for publication.
Statens Serum Institut has also been asked for a comment, but press offices have answered the Ekstra comments with 'it will be a no thank you from here'.
Jakob Kjellberg, professor at The National Research and analysis centre for Welfare and health (Vive), believes that it is important to find out why the sentences are removed - and by whom.
He calls this 'relevant information', according to the agency lacked evidence that the comprehensive approach would work, and he calls for answers as to why they were removed.
- If you have made a professional assessment that you will not go into a discussion of the evidence and relevance, so it can be fair and square. But it is problematic, if it is someone who has been inside and mingle. We cannot say on the basis of it here, so the core issue for the Board is: they Had it with, as they seem relevant, says Jakob Kjellberg.
There is nothing unusual in the fact that clear warnings against the shutdown were to no warnings at 48 hours.
It stresses the Health and Ældreministeriet in an email to Ekstra Bladet.
'It is normal process, to the notes before the publication is sent around between the authorities for the qualification,' it says.
And in relation to the risk assessment, writes the ministry further:
'The ongoing dialogue in relation to the note must also be seen in the light of the rapid development in the smittetallet, which increased dramatically in the days.'