(Obi.no:) This week's main event is today's vote in the british parliament about utmeldingsavtalen from the EUROPEAN union. It is scheduled to be carried out around the clock 20.00 in the evening, after five days of debate is closed.
"the Vote was first scheduled in December, but the time selected prime minister May have to postpone the process until early in the new year. The reason was that there was an to that she would suffer a clear defeat in the referendum. She therefore wanted to go for a ekstrarunde with the EUROPEAN union to embellish on the agreement when it came to the so-called "backstop"solution, which ensures an open border with Ireland, in a hope to be able to get the agreement passed," explains senior economist Knut A. Magnussen at DNB Marekts in morgenrapporten.
There was little to gain for May in Brussels. The EU was not willing to change the contractual wording, and it was not time for new negotiations. May therefore had to attempt to obtain support for the original agreement.
"the EUROPEAN peaks Tusk and Juncker tried yesterday to help May through to provide assurances that Backstop solution will be temporary, but it is hardly enough to get more to support the agreement. It does, however, look out for that May have managed to persuade so many members of his own party, nor from the opposition, to change opinion", continues seniorøkonomen.
There was, admittedly, the four former opponents, who on Sunday said that they had changed their minds and now would vote for the agreement. Thus, it is, according to the Decision an to the that the agreement will be voted down by a relatively large majority (50-150) of the representatives in the parliament.
"the Whole Labour will vote against, because the party wants early elections and the possibility to negotiate a better deal. In addition, probably a large group of conservatives to vote against the agreement, because they want a harder Brexit. The Northern Irish unionistpartiet (DUP), which supports the May its government, is expected also to vote against", he believes.
The exact outcome of the vote will, however, according to the seniorøkonomen could depend on the order of a number of tilleggsforslag (the"amendments") that it can voteres over. Order and the proposals to be voted on is determined by the team leader ("speaker") in the parliament.
"May tried a long time to push forward support for the agreement by claiming that the option is to go out of the EU without an agreement. This strategy has not worked", they mean Magnussen.
Will persist even a moment,
on Wednesday last week, parliament voted that by a "nay" to the agreement, which seems very likely, so will May have to come back with a plan B in the course of three days.
"This makes it probably easier for opponents to vote against the agreement, because one does not fear that the result will be a Brexit without an agreement. When the plan B put forward, the parliament will in addition to take a position to it, also be able to put forward and debate their own options. There will typically be a new referendum, a so-called "Norway Plus", or a permanent customs union with the EUROPEAN union".
In this way the parliament will, according to DNB Markets-this could prevent that one ends up with a Brexit without an agreement, that could have a significant, negative consequences for the economy.
"It requires, however, that there can be achieved a majority for one of the options mentioned above, and it seems not to be the case now. One possibility is therefore that the May go, a new round of EU-the Brexit to be postponed, probably until the summer, in a hope to get adopted an adjusted agreement ".
the Ability to achieve this, he believes, is greater the smaller the defeat May suffer in the day.
"either way, the uncertainty around the Brexit process persist even a moment", concludes the Decision.
Everything other than "no" surprises
Erik Johannes Bruce and Nick Pausgaard Fish in Nordea Markets mean anything other than a no, at tonight's british reconciliation about Theresa Mays appointment will be very surprising.
"The big question is how large the defeat will be. The greater the defeat, the weaker the pound must be reckoned with. Is defeat low can the pound, which has strengthened some in the past, go further stronger. Then there is a chance that the May go ahead with the negotiations and have the opportunity to win a next-vote", is called it in morgenrapporten.
Exactly where the limit goes for whether the pound appreciates or not, according to Bruce and Pausgaard Fish difficult to say.
"Some are talking about 100 (Bloomberg)", enter the two-Nordea-economists.
no Matter how big the defeats, is what happens from here is highly uncertain, they believe.
"It can be a hard brexit, if members of parliament are unable to agree on a solution. We do not believe that it is the result. There is a large majority in parliament and probably in the population against such a outcome as in one way or another, we anticipate that it will be foiled".
A possibility is, according to Nordea-the duo to push the entire problem by the fact that the united Kingdom applying for deferment of Brexit-day, but it will need the Eu, the remaining member states to accept.
"It will give more time to find a solution. New elections can also change the picture. Labour will probably require mistillitsavstemming against the government. It can give a new parliamentary election. But then conservative members or DUP members to vote for mistrust to the government to go, and it doubt since the polls, they provide little hope for a good early elections".
Maybe May (possibly a new conservative prime minister if she chooses to go) according to Bruce and Pausgaard Fish up new negotiations, and adds up to a softer Brexit.
"It can get the vote from a larger part of the Labours of members".
A possible new EU -reconciliation
A fourth scenario is a possible new EU -reconciliation.
"It is difficult to see that we get a clarification quickly, so the uncertainty will probably last a good while. The pound sterling has appreciated 1.5 percent in the last few days. We believe it is the expression of increased expectations in the market about a softer Brexit or a possible new referendum on Brexit", end, economists at Nordea Markets.currency:
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