Eight years of war : What happens to Assad's Syria?

Eight years. Or 96 Months. Or 416 Weeks. Or 2920 Days. As long as there's a war in Syria already. In some Parts of the country battered as it may today, less battles, less suffering and less deadly air attacks than a year ago. But that changes little to the fact that Syria is far from peace.

still fighting, and violence are ubiquitous. And associated serious human rights violations. Just a few days ago a United Nations Commission came to the view that a return of Displaced persons.

The war crimes marked the conflict on hold – including the shelling of civilian facilities such as schools and clinics. In the of ruler Bashar al-Assad recaptured the provinces of the fundamental rights blatantly would disregard it. Torture, disappearances, and arbitrary arrests create a climate of fear.

There, where insurgents Say, it looks like for the civilian population. Alone between July 2018 and January 2019, one and a half million Syrians have become, according to estimates by the UN to refugees.

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order The Syrian Drama, it has still found no end, even if, at least, the "Islamic state" military seems to be defeated. The "Caliphate" of the murderous "Holy warriors" as a territorial Entity belongs to the past. It is still unclear whether a Comeback is possible when the Anti-terrorist fight is a decrease in may, according to America's announced withdrawal.

graphics: Fabian Bartel

however, What is clear already today: Bashar al-Assad has not been able to end the war – the mutant within a short time of a local uprising to a world conflict, but for decided. The dictator is succeeded in something, which had excluded many observers for a long time: He has survived politically as well as physically.

Other Arab despots such as Libya's Muammar Gaddafi or Iraq's Saddam Hussein ended by bullets or the gallows. Assad has to Say, however, as before, is allowed to continue to rule – in spite of more than 550,000 dead, almost 13 million refugees, and the brutal suppression.

graphics:Fabian Bartel

for a Long time did not look, however, it is then that the Regime would be able to keep. In the summer of 2015, the rebels advanced even in the direction of Latakia, Assad's core area. The ruler said at the time that his soldiers were able to defend all areas. Some would have to be abandoned, to be able to other places to better protect an admission of weakness.

Russia fighter jets to the war-turn

Then came, however, entered a large the field of battle: Moscow rushed to his beleaguered protégé in Damascus to help. At the end of September 2015 scho Russian Jets shoot down in the name of fighting terrorism their first rocket. That was the political-military turning point in the war. After the Regime recaptured the Opposition-controlled regions, – having regard to the ground on the Iranian-commanded and-equipped Shiite militias such as Hezbollah.

This campaign of destruction, including Starvation, use of poison gas, and the targeted duration of the bombing had to oppose Assad's enemies. Where the units of the ruler raged in HOMS, Aleppo, Eastern Ghouta, they left scorched earth.

Yet Assad's regime would fall is likely to cost the rulers a lot. Because those who are close to them, demanding their reward – they will have a say in the future of the country. The President will stay formally in Power, "is but a prisoner of his allies," writes Syria expert Kristin Hellberg.

Russia and Iran as foreign actors, as well as local Warlords and regime-affiliated entrepreneurs. They all want to benefit from the post-war order.

graphics: Fabian Bartel

The leadership in Moscow wants to turn on remotely in the exercise and, so, their strong position in the Region secure. The same is true for the Mullahs in Tehran. You want to use Syria as a base to their influence in the Middle East.

And the Syrian war lords and business leaders? The a are become as a Criminal Empire, with looting, abductions and extortion. They have little interest in the end of the war. The other came through lucrative deals with the Assad Clan to money. "None of them is interested in the public good, the economic recovery of the country or social reparation," analyzes Kristin Hellberg.

A divided people

Exactly, everything needs Syria to find peace at last. Only: Can this be achieved with Assad at the top at all? With one that is going against his own people so brutally? One that has divided Syria into supporters and opponents, in Jubler and those who want revenge?

The grievances that sparked the uprising, state paternalism, arbitrary, Surveillance, oppression, and corruption – have not disappeared. On The Contrary. Syria is, perhaps, more than ever, a totalitarian dictatorship.

The reading of the regime: betrayal

In clear text is called the: dissenters are unwelcome, and any Form of Opposition. In March 2011, initiated a revolt is after the reading of the regime is nothing other than betrayal. Who has participated as the opposition, need not be more in Syria to look, sounded a few months ago a senior representative of the military. "Tens of millions of trust people have in the leadership of obedience worthy", would be better than a country with a "30 million vandal", said the chief of air force intelligence.

Several million people, according to activists on the wanted lists of the authorities. They are accused of, to have the riot support. The refugees are meant to be.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin (R.) has secured his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad's political Survival.Photo: Sputnik/Mikhail Klimentyev/Reuters

Almost six million people have found protection abroad, most in neighboring countries such as Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan. All of these countries shoulders a tremendous load, you are sometimes overwhelmed. The Refugees are, in turn, disappointed, frustrated, and bitter. They dwell still in makeshift accommodation, no Jobs, the savings have long since run out, and their children go to school.

they still Had in the first years, the hope is to return soon, characterizes primarily the lack of prospects and poverty of their everyday life. The gloomy idea of the Displaced, that they will remain homeless, is a certainty. At least, if Assad remains President.

this is unlikely to change in the foreseeable future. Any attempt to solve this confusing a lot of front war peacefully and amicably has failed. Several mediators of the United Nations in the towel, disillusioned, have thrown.

"there is Nothing in Syria comparable to"

The former UN envoy Staffan de Mistura said in mid-2017 the daily mirror: "there is Nothing in Syria comparable. The complexity is unique.“ The West, including the United States and Europe has come to terms with Assad remaining in office. Russia and Iran support him. Because he serves them as a vehicle to assert their interests.

the country could have the consequence of this is that it breaks down into four parts: an Assad-the territory under the control of the regime, Russia and Iran; a largely Autonomous Kurdish region in the North-East; by Turkey in occupied territory, and a Sunni-influenced Zone in the East. Syria remains a plaything of foreign powers.

day-to-day need to bring people, battles and air attacks. They become refugees.Photo: Omar Haj Kadour/AFP

The people something else is on at the moment: reconstruction. Cities, villages, and whole tracts of land lying in rubble and ashes. The war to eliminate damages that could cost it is estimated that between 250 and 400 billion dollars and a decade to take.

But what about the means? Russia intends to call on the West to the checkout. Not bristles, as long as Assad is ready to reforms. But after that, it's not.

dictatorship instead of democracy

And what became of the civil society Engagement? Than eight years ago, hundreds of thousands against the Assad's Regime, protested, joined together anywhere in the country, Syrians organized peaceful protests documented by human rights violations, created organizations to support the victims of the regime, joined together in women's initiatives, or created spaces for open discussions about Syria's future.

It was about freedom, democracy and Dignity for all. "Due to the military developments of the Syrian activist have to give up indoor and activists pinned their hopes on an end to the dictatorship", says Ansar Jasim, head of the project for the Syrian civil society in the German-Syrian human rights organization, Adopt a Revolution.

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the fight against the IS 400 US soldiers are now to remain in Syria

I have, However, changed with the uprising in 2011 the Syrian society fundamentally. "However, many people are continuing to campaign for a more democratic society. You show: There is an Alternative to dictatorship and militia rule.