The first area code in the state of Iowa is still 13 months, but in the case of the Democrats, the invisible code has already begun, what American observers call the "invisible primary",. The question is, who starts in 2020, against U.S. President Donald Trump . Series way currently possible candidate in the position, you ensnare donors, recruit consultants, to explore in surveys, the mood at the base – all with the goal to be in the early summer of 2020 as the official candidate of the Democratic party elected.
The policy consultant Jon Haber has worked for five different democratic presidential candidates, including Bill Clinton and Howard Dean. "As big as this Time the field was never," he says. More than three dozen Democrats have declared or hinted they would consider a candidacy. A few have announced their candidacy already formally. The most Prominent of them, Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts. To the other include Julian Castro, the former mayor of San Antonio, and John Delaney, a former Congressman from Maryland.
again crucial, in which Trump won in the last election.
The names that are circulating in Washington that change daily, but there are some factors that show up again and again with the question of what kind of Person could beat Trump at the most. This is hardly political content. To find legal, strategist, commander-in-chief: "On election day the voters look at the candidates and ask yourself: do I Like this Person?" In terms of content, the Democrats are not separated, anyway: In the case of issues such as the Expansion of health care, raising the minimum wage, or the requirement for stricter weapons laws rule Consensus. More important is the personality of the candidate is and whether it meets a number of crucial points.
their victory in the midterm elections from the fall of the Democrats to thank for a substantial part of the women. And the women will play in the next presidential election a big role: for the First time, several serious candidate to be fighting inside the democratic Nomination. In addition to Warren that could be the senators Kirsten Gillibrand (New York), Kamala Harris (California) or Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota).
Video – American Democrat Warren wants to compete for the presidential election, 2020
Some evidence that a female candidate in the party's base would have a good chance. But there are also other voices that say: If the Democrats make it a goal, a specific Segment of Trump voters to recover, you need a man. You then refer to the woman enemy's attacks, which were most recently Hillary Clinton and the show in trains are already now in the discussion of the Person of Warren. Women, so this Argument, would always be measured rods with other mass – to their detriment.
In the first polls under the democratic party-goers, two men who are already in a high age: Joe Biden (76), Vice President under Barack Obama, and Bernie Sanders (77), lost last Time against Hillary Clinton on the top of the list. Fresh faces are not the. Of the two men, there are also stories from the past about the sexist remarks and lack of sense that you might be in times of #MeToo undoing.
A theory about Biden stating that he could leave in the case of a candidacy by looking that he is going only for a term, as a transitional President, so to speak – what could take voters to the fear of his age. Nevertheless, many Democrats want a younger representatives, which speaks for people like the former Deputy, Beto O'rourke (46, Texas), U.S. Senator Cory Booker (age 49, New Jersey). O'rourke managed the last with his Senate candidacy in Texas, to create a country-wide Hype around his Person, especially first-time voters.
One of the most delicate questions about a topic that often remains unspoken: Need to set up the Democrats for a White to have in rural America have a Chance against Trump? Or Trumps Challenger should be a Person who contributes to the diversity of the party and the country, which is getting bigger and bigger? The senators Booker and Kamala Harris are two likely candidates with black skin color, Stacey Abrams, which failed most recently in Georgia as a Governor's candidate, a more.
The three would have in the primaries is probably the advantage that you could count on the votes of black voters in the party's weight. And even if there are a number of occasions still doubt about whether a Black could be against Trump: Barack Obama proved with his election that a black candidate can get in to the white electorate votes.
in 2020, will once again be the States of the Midwest is crucial, in which Trump won the last election, wafer-thin. A Consideration, therefore in the direction that the Democrats needed someone who comes from one of these areas. This would speak to someone like Biden, who has become in the industrial belt of Pennsylvania, gross, or for someone like Sherrod Brown, a Union-affiliated Senator from Ohio, who was elected in the autumn with a very good result. A lot of supporters but it also has Senator Klobuchar from Minnesota, a down-to-earth, when the voters of their state popular politician.
Among the candidates of the Democrats is likely to be a number of politicians who can refer to in your campaign for a successful government work. To John Hickenlooper, former Governor of Colorado, the enjoys in his home country, also in the case of Republicans, a certain maker Image. Also Mitch Landrieu, former mayor of New Orleans, and the 36-year-old mayor of the city of South Bend, Indiana Pete Buttigieg probably count. These people, however, have the disadvantage that they are familiar with on a national level, hardly anyone. An exception: Michael Bloomberg, the former mayor of New York.
In contrast, there are a few prospects that stand out in that they have as Trump prior to his election – no political experience. The former Investor Tom Steyer, who is one of the most important donors to the Democrats. Howard Schultz, the Ex-boss of coffee chain Starbucks, is said to have an interest in a candidacy. What is missing from these people, however, have the experience in the political melee, people like Biden, and senators like Warren, Booker or Harris. Conversely, their Status as a Washington Insider might actually be harmful.
to find no one secures a Nomination to the presidential candidate who is not able to, early on, large quantities of donations. Billionaires like Bloomberg and Steyer have a starting advantage because they have many of their own resources, but also you can't Finance a presidential campaign exclusively out of your own pocket. It is crucial, therefore, how good a candidate is, Large and flocks of small donors. In Texas, this O'rourke succeeded last year in an impressive way: He collected from all over the country to donate in record numbers.
Warren, Sanders, Brown, and Harris are four of the perhaps best-placed Democrats, who belong to the party's left wing. Biden, but also many of the current and former governors and mayors are more likely to locate in the centre. A Dilemma for the democratic party-getter in the primaries is as follows: Choose a representative of the left wing that fires at the base of this party maybe more enthusiasm? Or choose someone who can pick up in the General election swing voters from the middle? It is wrong to believe that voters in the primaries, clock-in votes, commander-in-chief says a policy Advisor. "The voters want to fall in love. Most of the decide with the heart."
One of the most important questions for the democratic candidate regardless of all other factors: How they fight Trump the best? By attacking him hard, like he does with his opponents? Nothing to see, some of the party base rather. Or by trying to go the direct confrontation out of the way and to sound, in view of the deep division of the country as conciliatory? This is supposed to be the message that Biden is about the former Vice President, but also that of a much younger O'rourke would deliver.
Not all of whose names are circulating currently, are also a candidate for the presidency. But even with an adjusted field of Candidates is likely to remain difficult to name a favorite. The new Regime, which introduced the Democrats after the last elections To the pressure from the base of the party, has reduced the influence of government officials on the selection process.
Who takes so 2020 against Trump? The big excitement has already been used, but a response there will be for a long time.
Created: 07.01.2019, 20:20 PM