Which is why the risk of war in the Middle East rises

The danger is that the US and Iran stumble into an armed conflict, intentionally or unintentionally, has increased in the past few days, striking. In view of the recent crisis, Washington and Tehran by means of military actions and political Statements in your own media to communicate, which leaves a lot of room for interpretations.

If there are still unofficial direct contacts, the two countries have no diplomatic relations – seems questionable. Would you be game in this global chess, however, will be of great Benefit. "We are very concerned that it might come by accident to a conflict, with an escalation, which is really on both sides unintentionally," said Jeremy Hunt, the British foreign Minister at the Meeting with his counterparts from the EU on Monday.

The recent train the White house made now. As the New York Times reported on Tuesday, has presented to the President of the US defence Minister, Patrick Shanahan in the White house the revised war plan. Thus, up to 120'000 soldiers will be deployed in the Gulf region if Iran, US forces attacking forces or its nuclear weapons program going. The extent of the possible troop strength, have a few of those present shocked and at the parade before the 2003 Iraq war recalled.

The "New York Times" relies on "more than a half-dozen during the Briefing present safety experts", who wanted to remain anonymous. This suggests that it is less an indiscretion than an intended Signal of the military's determination to Tehran.

Bolton comes closer to his goal

The fits to the Iran policy of the government Trump the will bear the clear handwriting of John Bolton. The security adviser to the US President, was a vehement supporter of the Iraq war, then as Ambassador to the United Nations, the government of George W. Bush. And Bolton suggested already in 2003, also in Iran, a regime change militarily. In this attitude he remained. 2015, he wrote in the "New York Times" a guest post. Title: "to stop the bomb Iran, bomb Iran".

As Trumps security Advisor, he seems to come closer to his goal. While Bolton sight of the fact that as a result of the lie justified a March on Baghdad Iraq today, a failed state is, without a sovereign government, with different foreign forces in the country. Between the American and the Iranian troops only a few kilometers. Also in the Gulf war ships of the two countries are close to dangerous. On Land or at sea, the danger of a firefight, ordered by local commanders without prior consultation with Washington, respectively, Tehran.

Both sides reaffirm that they do not want war. US Secretary of state Mike Pompeo said it again after the Meeting with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov on Tuesday evening in Sochi. But is that really the case? The American allegations that Iran was planning an attack on troops of the United States or its allies in the Middle East, are "suspicious non-specific", as the Economist writes. Attacks by militias supported by Tehran, could allow the US government to massively retaliate. Foreign Minister Pompeo said once that he prefer air strikes against Iran's nuclear talks with Iran.

in any case, the combination of the saber is increased rattling and disintegrating nuclear agreement, the threat of war. The new U.S. sanctions appear to be effective, had reacted to the Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, when he announced that Iran will, in turn, partially pulling out of the nuclear deal. Rohani, who actually want to adhere to the agreement, aims to appease the hardliners leader of the revolution Ali Khamenei and to demonstrate the commitment of Iran to Washington.

But Rouhani is stuck in a Dilemma, because he doesn't want to scare the Europeans, who want to adhere to the nuclear deal. Therefore, he waived for the time being, the atom does not proceed, enrichment is high, so that the EU abandons the agreement, and again penalties decided.

Who is responsible for attacks on oil Tankers responsible?

Should enrich Iran is actually uranium, consider the United States the use of military force. So it appears the updated schedule of Minister of defense of Shanahan. The question is, how much uranium enriched to war, what is the Casus Belli? Iran has brought in accordance with the nuclear agreement almost all its enriched Material out of the country. The Mullah Regime would, allegedly, a year or even longer, enough to enrich uranium for a bomb.

it also remains Unclear who is responsible for the attacks on the oil Tanker off the coast of the Arab Emirates to be responsible – the fog of war has settled over the Gulf. When questioned on this, said Trump: "Iran gets to a big Problem if something happens." U.S. officials suspect Tehran, endorse. Other American sources, however, caution that there is no clear evidence that lead to Iran or its allies.

The foreign Ministry in Tehran, spoke, meanwhile, of an "unfortunate incident" that reminds, however, disturbing to the Tonkin incident off the coast of North Vietnam in August 1964. At the time of shot according to American data, North Vietnamese fast boats without the occasion of two U.S. war ships – a deliberate Misrepresentation. The Vietnam war escalated.

(editing Tamedia)

Created: 14.05.2019, 18:58 PM