Trump is a prisoner of his shutdown

It is not so that it would not try Donald Trump : Since the days of the US President uses any opportunity that offers him his office, the Democrats, the responsibility for the partial closure of the U.S. attach government. A speech in the Oval Office, Prime-time, PR-visit to the southern border, a call to a Fox News broadcast, and a bombardment of Tweets with the same message: Only if the Democrats in Congress give the money for the construction of his wall, he will open the government again.

It is of no use. 24 days of the Shutdown has lasted as long as none of them so far, and looking at the various polls, the conclusion is clear: A majority of 47 to 55 percent of Americans are Trump and his Republicans to blame. Between 29 and 32 percent of the respondents say that the responsibility lies with the Democrats. Approximately 13 percent of the see the fault on both sides. These values have evolved recently to the detriment of Trump.

it was not as expected. In previous budgets, the President, was politically the most damage, but the opposition party in Congress, which blocked an agreement on the budget was not a barrier, it tends to be. So it was, for example, in 1995 and 1996. At the time, was sitting in the White house, the Democrat Bill Clinton. In Congress, the Republicans passed the spending under the leadership of Newt Gingrich to a reduction in the state. While Clinton and Gingrich negotiated, you switched constantly to the polls. You showed a clear picture: The Public sided with Clinton. After a month, the Republicans were beaten, and Gingrich recovered from it politically.

under President Barack Obama, there was a longer Shutdown. In 2013, Republicans attempted in Congress, Obama's health care reform to stop by, they wanted to deprive her of the means. Also in this case, a majority of Americans gave the President the debt, but the Republicans in Congress – and this drew.

The wall is unpopular

What is different this time? First, many Americans remember the beginning of the shutdown in December, as Trump said to the leaders of the Democrats in front of the cameras: "I would be proud of the fact that the government is to paralyze." It was a violation of a rule of the Washington political establishment, which is: never say that you're for a Shutdown, because the voters hate more than anything.

Second, many are well aware of the fact that Trump has had two years with a Republican majority in both Congress chambers is a Budget to pass, it would contain enough funds for the construction of its wall. He did not do it – because even many Republicans hold a wall for no effect. If the wall is so important, why he waited then, until, in the house of representatives, the Democrats came to Power?

Thirdly, it is not just the Shutdown, but also its subject matter – the wall – in the case of a majority of the Americans unpopular. On average, they hold only 41 percent for a good idea, 55 percent oppose it. However, the surveys show also that a wall, want, wants. For Trumps the base of the wall is a core of his presidency.

No compromise in sight

It is this point that makes it currently hard to find a way out. In the case of the Shutdowns under Clinton and Obama, both the President compromises a – Clinton in a stimulus package, which he had promised in the election campaign, Obama is at a Central point of his health-care reform. Trump, however, looks obviously not able, of its requirement to abandon, without disappointing his followers. And conversely, Nancy Pelosi, the democratic speaker of the house of representatives has blocked a compromise by has referred to the construction of a wall repeatedly as "immoral".

In this way, also nothing from the only solution that seems feasible is: Trump agrees to the Democrats to help the many children of illegal Immigrants a naturalization, which are already long in the country – and receives a portion of his money for the wall.

(editing Tamedia)

Created: 14.01.2019, 18:38 PM