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Time is working against Guaidó

Venezuela's opposition leader and interim President, Juan Guaidó asserted that he had seized Power legally. Many Venezuelan constitutional lawyers, as well as the part of the international community, which regarded him as the legitimate President, to vote for him. The strategy behind its recognition is based on the calculus of the fast efficacy: The growing number of foreign governments that stand behind Guaidó, to impress the socialist Nicolás Maduro . The economic sanctions and the Freezing of state accounts and gold holdings abroad, to the poor leadership of their privileges in fear of and in connection with an Amnesty offer to move.

The hope that this might work, fed a week ago, the army General Estéban Yánez. As the first senior officer he recognized Guaidó, where he claimed two aircraft clearly are at any time start to Maduro and his Entourage are to the (presumably Cuban) exile. 90 percent of the armed forces were against the dictator.

Now, however, has proved Maduro already beifrüheren crises of amazing resilience. So far little suggests that of the approximately 2000 Venezuelan generals for more go to the camp of the Opposition – at least enough to threaten Maduro's military power in the event of internal unrest.

The time is also working against the peace

Nevertheless, Guaidó from I he practice of state violence actually. The growing international recognition encouraged him, although he exercises no control over the bureaucracy, ministries or the police. This is dangerous. Because the Power of foreign support based Guaidós Power device inevitably on a collision course with the real exerted Maduros.

a Particularly critical threat, the dispute over the delivery of foreign aid seems. Guaidó wants you to receive what is given to the catastrophic humanitarian situation. Maduro rejects the help, because the Venezuelans were "not a nation of beggars". One of the two sides will lose in this debate, inevitably, the face. The risk of a violent escalation, the worst case involves foreign participation. Something similar applies to economic sanctions. The lack of food, medicines and consumer goods, is now devastating, now he is even worse. Because Venezuela covers his petrol consumption to a large extent by the re-introduction of its own processed oil from the U.S., could break in the country with the largest crude oil reserves in the world, moreover, soon the fuel supply. The economic sanctions hoped-for acceleration of the dictator's fall is not the Moment to be counterproductive, since this entry.

It is a risky game, on the Guaidó and its international supporters have admitted. If Maduro falls in the next few days or the military leadership, forcing it to resign, it was worth the risk. If they do not, sooner rather than later, the question of whether the diplomatic recognition of a President without real Power is impractical. And if the Trump Administration to lead a military Intervention to end this intolerable state of Affairs. Time is working against Guaidó. And against the peace.


Created: 06.02.2019, 23:03 PM

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