The winners and losers of trump's withdrawal from Syria

Against the wishes of his security Advisor, Donald Trump has ordered the full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria. "We have won against the IS, we got him trounced. And now it is time for our soldiers to come home," Trump said in a Video on Twitter. According to the White house, the retreat has already begun and should be completed in 30 days.

In the U.S. Department of defense was trying to information from various media for the last Trump to change his mind – in vain. The President complained a long time ago, that he had inherited from his predecessor, Barack Obama, the endless military action in Syria, he thinks is wrong. Now he draws the consequences and pushes in order to massive criticism even from within its own ranks.

"This is a big mistake."Marco Rubio, a Republican Senator

"If Obama had done that, we would all freak out, because it is a bad idea," said the influential Republican Senator Lindsey Graham. His colleague Marco Rubio said it was a "big mistake". Everyone was against this decision. Also US defence Secretary Jim Mattis is regarded as an opponent of the withdrawal, and has warned of negative consequences.

Up to now, were stationed 2000 American special forces in Syria, in the North and East of the country. They have fought against the terror militia IS, local military units and the opposition forces advised and trained. Your most important ally is the Kurdish militia, YPG, which leads the Syrian Democratic forces (SDF).

Who what are the areas in Syria A war-torn country, five parties to the conflict: The balance of power in Syria in a controlled manner. Map: pvo/source: New York Times (Click here to enlarge the map)

as of today, the Kurds hold the North-East of the country, wedged between Turkey and the troops of the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Ankara controlled since its military operations to "shield the Euphrates" in 2016 and "olive branch" at the beginning of 2018, the North West of the river Euphrates, Assad's soldiers were able to recapture many of the lost areas in the last few years back.

rebel groups control areas in the North-West and South. The IS still smaller areas in the centre and in the East. For the balance of power in the civil war, the country of the withdrawal of US troops from the point of view of analysts will have far-reaching consequences and further aggravate the Situation.

The losers have previously Worked Hand-in-Hand: American soldiers and a unit of Syrian Democratic forces close to the border with Turkey. (Image: Reuters)

a Big loser in the Kurdish-run SDF as a previous ally. The U.S. withdrawal is seen by critics as a betrayal of the Kurds. This fight against IS, now have to fear an attack by the Turkish army. Turkey wants to prevent that in Syria an Autonomous Kurdish area are removed, which could fan separatism among the Kurds in Turkey. Ankara threatens with an expansion of its military presence in Syria.

For Israel, the fear of a permanent Iranian military presence on the Iran side of the border, is the withdrawal is also bad news. It accuses Iran of supplying Hezbollah in Lebanon with weapons through Syria to be used against Israel. The governments in Jordan and Lebanon, allies of the United States, belong to the losers. In negotiations over Syria's future, you now no longer have much influence.

winners Benefit both of US retreat: The Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan. (Image: Reuters)

Until now, the US has prevented presence in the North of the country, that there was a major confrontation between Turkish and Kurdish armed forces. Now Ankara has a free Hand to its threatened Offensive in Syria. In addition to the Turkey, the Assad Regime and its allies in Moscow and Tehran from the deduction benefit. Russia is the dominant military force in the war-torn country, Iran can expand its presence in Syria and the Syrian government, its control over even more areas in the country to expand, including the oily areas in which U.S. troops were stationed.

Not least of all the American withdrawal could lead, according to the analysts, but also to a resurgence of the IS. Officially, the terrorist militia controlled only small areas. However, it is believed that in Syria there are still thousands IS-to keep fighters hiding and attacks. Just before Donald Trump announced yesterday its decision, the IS to a bomb attack in Raqqa.

The consequences Could soon launch an Offensive against the Kurds start: The Turkish army, with a tank on the way to the border with Syria. (Image: Reuters)

From the point of view of analysts, there are two likely scenarios: first, Turkey could make good on her threat and the military presence expanded. Your troops would then attack the Kurds and the areas to the East conquer of the river Euphrates. The result of a devastating conflict, the weaknesses of the struggle of the Kurds against the IS and lead to a new wave of Migration would be.

Secondly, but less likely, could the parties to the conflict to a common solution. Currently Russia, Iran and Turkey to negotiate with representatives of the Syrian regime and the insurgents about the possibilities of a peace settlement. In the interview, a so-called constitutional Convention, the elections under the UN is to prepare for supervision. The government in Damascus fights, however. Because Bashar al-Assad could benefit from the weakening of the Kurds and try to bring the whole country under his control.

(editing Tamedia)

Created: 20.12.2018, 12:54 PM