The moment of truth for Theresa May will come on the 11th of December, when the House of Commons vote, in a single block, the Treaty of Withdrawal from the EU and the Joint Political Declaration that the prime minister was brought from Brussels after long months of agonizing negotiations. In the next few days, the battle has multiple fronts and none to paint things well for the governor british. The parliamentary debate will last 40 hours and will be dog face. Meanwhile, May runs in addition to the country to convince the public opinion that your agreement is the only possible one, the best, and the only guarantee of an ordered mode the compliance of the result of the referendum in 2016.
1. The prior report of the attorney general
The attorney-general, Geoffrey Cox, to appear this Monday in Parliament to explain the legal reasons that underpin the disengagement Agreement agreed with the EU. His intention is to make a speech more "political than legal" in defense of the suitability of the covenant, without giving details technical-legal, the "pros" and "cons", the Executive considered before you make your decision. The labour opposition, backed by the unionist northern irish and a large group of conservative eurosceptics, claiming that it will deliver "all the legal report complete" that has shuffled the Government, and anticipates that it will launch a "parliamentary procedure of contempt of court" if you are not entirely persuaded by the explanation of Cox. In fact, the complaint won the support nearly unanimous of the House on 13 November, included the ministers May, that they had no arguments or stomach politician to oppose a request looks reasonable and that I was going to go forward with the support of the entire opposition.
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Some compare this demand with the claim that was made to the labour Government of Tony Blair that will deliver all the information prior to the decision to intervene in the invasion of Iraq. The last word will the speaker (speaker of the House of Commons, John Bercow. Many experts believe that your decision should be automatic, without having much room to maneuver. If it is finally set in motion the procedure, he would end up in the hands of a parliamentary committee. Do not paralyze the legislative process of the Brexit, but it could cause a constitutional crisis with few precedents, clear confrontation between the executive and legislative branches, in a country of strong parliamentary tradition.
2. A discussion of 40 hours in Westminster
This Tuesday will begin in the House of Commons the debate on the disengagement agreement and the policy statement agreed with the EU. 40 hours of pure parliamentarism in which up to the last deputy will have the opportunity to capture for posterity his position on the decision more transcendent that has been adopted by the Uk in decades. The Government intends that the text be approved or rejected in a single block, but nothing shall prevent the deputies to introduce amendments to the text. The Executive May is not mandatory to incorporate these amendments, which would follow its own course, in the first ballot, but it is clear that if prosper alternative texts that would alter in a great measure the nature of the agreement would end up creating a legal maze of difficult exit.
3. The face-to-face on television
Theresa May plays the card of the ideology in the final, and spurs a debate face to face with the leader of the opposition labour party, Jeremy Corbyn. Held at the BBC on December 9, two days before the final vote. It is still in the air, because the leader labour requires a face-to-face without journalists or political commentators as intended to impose the chain of public television.
But the most important are not the details of choreography. Already there have arisen many critics who accuse May of playing with marked cards. The first minister is going to defend a Brexit that never defended in the referendum campaign of 2016. The labour is going to attack a Brexit that the fund has never finished upsetting. Left out of the debate those eurosceptics who claim the abandonment without conditions of the EU, the pro-european that demand a second referendum, or the nationalist scots, who have been drawn to a decision of which they do not feel participants or beneficiaries.
4. Voting key: on the 11th of December
the day of truth for Theresa May. It needs the support of about 320 members (there are 650 seats) to take forward its Brexit. Current estimates, as reliable a day as risky the following, point to a just account with 240 (it is estimated that there are 90 conservative mps against), and that including some labour pro-european and anti-Corbyn who would be willing to break ranks with his party. The whips (whips), those parliamentarians with influence and rank to the front of the conservative mps, they work against the clock to attract supporters to the cause. Everything is worth it. Promises of changes in those laws favorite of the deputies, that give them points in their respective electoral districts; the bait of a knighthood and the step to 1xbet the House of Lords, or pressures slightly concealed on a political future uncertain if you "betray" the Government of his party.
If, by a miracle, Theresa May to take forward the agreement (it would have to be ratified at the EU summit on 13 and 14 December), which would be approved would be the Withdrawal Act (motion for withdrawal of the EU), that is to say, the treaty with the EU. Stay ahead of the Withdrawal Bill (Act of Withdrawal from the EU), which would lead to new weeks of debates and amendments, but it would give some more peace of mind to the Government of May. For instance, a parliamentarian close to the Spanish, it is as if the Government pulls ahead in block voting which involves the amendment to the entirety of the General Budgets: breathing is quiet, even though it will be tough weeks ahead and a shock.
5. What happens if you win the 'no'? Four days of panic...
If you were rejected in the first attempt, the 11th of December, the regulation allows the Government to resubmit the agreement to the vote in a period of four days. It has been speculated with the possibility that this is the option preferred by the team of May. Play with the idea that the rejection of his plan sumiría the country in the uncertainty and, after 96 hours of course panic in the markets, the pound in free fall, the pressure from voters and the business world, many conservative mps will think twice your daring prior and would vote in favor of May. In any case, it is an extreme situation that the Government does not withtunes officially and that tensaría the ropes of Parliament.
6. Another alternative: the motion of censure
If the agreement of the Brexit is rejected summarily in the Parliament, the Labour Party has already announced its intention of tabling a motion of confidence, equivalent to the motion of censorship in spain, but without the need of alternative candidate nor a constructive spirit. Logically, a defeat of this motion would send to Theresa May to the street. But it is not the same for members of conservative eurosceptics to vote against a Brexit that does not convinces them to vote to bring down his own Government. It is not clear that something like this could thrive.
7. What about another possibility? Early elections
it Is an option that has never left the political chessboard. If you May suffer a humiliation of colossal on the 11th of December, it would be complicated to stay to the front of Downing Street. However, the first minister has so far shown a pragmatism and a coolness of calculation to put in place the legislative procedures or political leads you to think that, if there is still a possibility for the remote that is to resist, resist.
8. One last option: a new agreement on 21 January
If none of the above prospers, the law allows May, before a defeat in parliament, a fixed date to go back before the House of Commons and propose an alternative. In this case, he would have time until January 21, 2019. No one has expressed aloud what could be this plan b, but they are open to various options. Negotiate possible changes to the agreement with the EU, it seems difficult, but perhaps an extension of the term of Article 50, the text activated by the United Kingdom to start the output of the European Union, could be put on the table. Today the set date to leave the community institutions is the 29 march 2019.
9. What about a second referendum?
No one would have thought that this possibility had flight until a few weeks ago, when he started to check the desperate situation in which the Government of May. For the moment, the prime minister's wielded as more of a threat to eurosceptics that as an option to consider. Legally it is possible, if you prosper any motion of the defenders of a second query subsequent to the predictable defeat of the agreement with the EU on the 11 of December. The technicians of the Government estimate at least a legal period necessary to 22 weeks before you could hold that second referendum, which requires a specific law to be summoned.
10. Tragedy or happy ending
If one and the other to pull the towel and resignaran no more the result of the December 11, the option is binary. Or, if the agreement is defeated, and not put up any alternative to it, the Uk is heading towards a Brexit to the rough, no agreement or period of transition, the 29th of march. The Government and the EU have been preparing for months devices extraordinary to deal with this issue, but all admit that the uncertainty and possible chaos that would create this scenario could engulf the british economy. This is finally the silver bullet of May, aware that the edge of the cliff, very few are decided to make the leap.