When U.S. President Donald Trump, and North Korea's ruler, Kim Jong-un, at 27. February in Hanoi to the negotiating table, with a bargain from afar, the Chinese President Xi Jinping. Trump and Kim know what they want from each other. You need to now is to agree on the price for Kim's disarmament steps and verification. It is all about how the US is North Korea in a stepwise manner.
Kim seems to be ready, nuclear not to disarm (even if he defines what he means by that). He said the North Koreans in his new year's address. He has recognized that he can justify his Power in the future with economic growth and a rapid improvement in the standard of living. In 2013 he had begun, by the "Songun"policy of his father Kim Jong-il to abandon. "Songun" means "military first". In 2017, he said the economy is the only priority.
Kim to have US Secretary of state Mike Pompeo assured that he was ready, all of the uranium - and Plutonium-enrichment facilities "and even more" to dismantle. The of the American North Korea envoy Stephen Biegun reported recently at the University of Stanford. At the same time, Biegun moved away from the previous Mantra that North Korea must completely disarm nuclear before the United States eased sanctions. He said these processes should run "simultaneous and parallel".
More Biegun assured: "We will not invade North Korea, we also have no interest to overthrow the Regime." Trump was determined to make the Korean Peninsula a permanent peace. "There is no reason that this conflict continues." However, the solution to which inevitably leads to the reorganisation of North-East Asia. In Hanoi, will be judged not only on nuclear weapons and missiles, sanctions, and survival guarantees for the Kim Regime. There is more to it: the hegemony over northeast Asia.
The impoverished North Korea, which has been barricaded since the end of the Cold war, exists only because of its powerful neighbors want it. China fears that a unification of Korea to bring U.S. troops to its border. Washington wants no neutral Korea, especially Seoul is economically tied to long-closer to China than to the United States. In addition, the Troops stationing in South Korea and Japan with the threat posed by Pyongyang to justify. Japan and Russia see North Korea a buffer.
The history shows Who's in control of the Korean Peninsula, is the Hegemon over North-East Asia. Already in the 16th century. Century tried to Japan to conquer the Peninsula, at that time a tributary vassal state of China. In 1895, Tokyo led war against China to Korea, in 1905 against Russia, the handle also to Korea. In 1910 Japan threw the whole Peninsula as a colony. And handle, two decades later, to China.
The vacuum that arose after Japan's surrender at the end of the Second world war, led to the division of Korea. The Korean war cemented it. After the end of the Cold war, an isolated North Korea fell, the neighbors have agreed implicitly to a stalemate. No side wanted to take the risk, the resource-rich, especially lose, but strategically important dictatorship on the other side. You had the Kim Regime, grant, Washington reduced North Korea to a nuclear problem. It wanted to avoid, above all, that Pyongyang was selling guns and missiles to hostile third countries.
Beijing and Washington continued even after Kim Jong-UN's assumption of office in 2011, to this relative stability. The Chinese had only contempt for "Kim-III-Pang", "Kim the third fatty", as the Erbdiktator on the otherwise sharp-censored Chinese Internet may be named. You let him play with them, but wanted to have nothing to do with him. President Barack Obama backed his disinterest with the label of "strategic patience". It is Kim's is certainly merit to this stalemate broken: only with his provocations, his peace initiative.
he had the luck that in Seoul with Moon Jae-in in may 2017, a President ruled that the settlement with North Korea is a personal concern and brought in as a mediator. And that in Washington, Trump sits, the trusts, unencumbered by historical knowledge, everything, to be able to, a peace in Korea to negotiate. Or to destroy North Korea, as he threatened in the fall of 2017, before the United Nations.
North Korea, China does not trust
Beijing, Kim's course correction detected too late. Only two years ago, worried whether Kim's missiles, which could he directed against China, but especially if Trumps threat of war, it began, the UN sanctions are consistently enforced. There is also the scope of Kim's peace initiative did not recognize first. Up in Seoul theories made the round, Washington could reward Kim for the renunciation of its nuclear weapons in military security guarantees. And with funds from South Korea and Japan a kind of Marshall plan to implement. Suddenly, North Korea threatened to slip away from Beijing. Since then, Xi Kim ensnared, the two celebrate the "eternal friendship" of their countries.
How much influence Xi really to Kim, is not clear. Traditionally, Pyongyang looks with distrust on China, it has always tried to keep its dependence on low. After all, Xi Kim is likely to have covered the back, as this symbolic denuclearization steps last summer by Trump to be more accommodating. Perhaps Beijing also plays on time. It does not want a "different future" between Washington and Pyongyang, as it is formulated Biegun. Meanwhile, Trump, and Kim highlight is the choice of Hanoi as the venue of its summit and the distance to Beijing. Vietnam's relations with China are difficult, those of the United States better. Now, the Vietnamese emphasize also, North Korea should take your business model, not the (similar), Chinese – model.
In Hanoi vies Xi from the distance, Kim and Trump. Already in January he had invited Trump to a summit, before the "cease-fire" in the trade war between China and the United States 2. March expiration. As the venue of Hainan was provided, the Chinese holiday island is only an hour's flight from Hanoi. Trump has postponed the Meeting of these days, at least. In the tug-of-war for hegemony Xi is currently playing worse cards.
Created: 12.02.2019, 19:38 PM