Brexit, the bill is salty: the United Kingdom has already cost 200 billion pounds

the LONDON - Given that nobody knows how it will end the Brexit, or if it will be beneficial or malefic for the Uk (and the Eu), there is already who has calculated the cost of exit from the Eu to the Uk: according to an analysis of Bloomberg Economics, the account would be at least 200 billion pounds. In practice, London would have already burnt more or less the equivalent of the contributions paid to Brussels in the 47 years of Eu membership (1973-2020): a figure that, according to calculations by the Library of the house of commons in London, it would be 215 billion.

The study of Bloomberg that dates back to last month but today has been "resurrected" by a couple of journalists, british mps claims that, because of Brexit, in recent years the Uk has lost 3% of gross domestic Product, for a total of 130 billion pounds. For the accuracy: 451 million in 2016, the year of the referendum which ratified the exit from the Eu, 21.7 billion the following year, the 47.2 billion in 2018 and 63.3 billion in 2019.

But that is not the end: the estimation of Bloomberg for 2020, speaks of at least 70,3 billion loss for the United Kingdom, for a total, by 2016, about 200 billion. And things could even get worse in 2021, the year in which London will be definitely out by the Eu (which is now in a transition period where you still apply the european standards): because, at least in the short term, there could be repercussions in production and trade, in farewell - we still don't know how hard - to the european economic system.

The problem, according to Bloomberg Economics and the author of the study, Dan Hanson, is the uncertainty of these last few years in england that would have generated "a lot less investment than you would have been in the case of Eu membership", in addition to the escape of several entrepreneurs scared of the limbo, as demonstrated some time ago a study by Ernst and Young that has even quantified in a bazillion pounds the potential for loss and the total of assets in the United Kingdom. According to Bloomberg, these circumstances have lowered the growth of the british by about 2% per year to 1%, or half of it. And the gap could continue. For the next quarter, in fact, the estimate of the agency of printing the anglo-saxon is 525 billion of Gdp produced by the Uk against the 541 calculated in case of staying in the Eu.

However, according to a recent study by the international monetary Fund, the United Kingdom could grow, however, more than France and Germany despite the Brexit, should tear up an agreement favorable in future negotiations with the Eu. That's why we are now at a decisive point. From 1 march, in fact, will begin the delicate negotiations between the United Kingdom and the European Union on the future relationship between the two blocks, which will decide the fate of economic and geopolitical good part of the West.

so Far, there are no major differences between the Eu and the Uk, especially on competition, environmental standards, and business, finance and fishing. Two days ago the government of british prime minister Boris Johnson has ensured that the United Kingdom give the negotiations already in June (the deadline is December 2020), if London does not experience progress in the negotiations. At that point it would certainly be a "No Deal", an output "without agreement" of the Uk by the Eu, which could have economic consequences grave for Britain but also for Europe.

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