A calendar to go back to 1973

The Twenty-seven gave yesterday its green light for the agreement of withdrawal of the EU from the Uk, which he joined in 1973 in the then European Economic Community. Today is the start of the exit road, which will be final next march 30th, and, from there, to negotiate the future relationship. These are some of the dates and keys in the process.

green Light in London. The british Parliament will vote in December whether to ratify the agreement. A negative of Westminster would leave several scenarios: a renegotiation to the desperate of the text, the calling of elections in the Uk or even another referendum. On all of them would plan a Brexit without agreement, given that the margin time is limited.

approval in Brussels. Is not closed by the date of ratification by the european Parliament, whose president, Antonio Tajani, said in a guideline that will be between February and march. A priori, it is a formality, since it is expected that a majority of meps to support the agreement.

Brexit. To 00.00 march 30, expires the period of two years stipulated by article 50 of the Treaty of the EU to negotiate the departure of a member of the club. If needed, this date could defer, but only a few weeks, given that the european elections are scheduled for may 26, and the vote should take place before the new meps take office. If the Brexit is complete agreement, there will be a transitional period of 21 months (until 1 January 2021, with the possibility of extending it) in which nothing will change for businesses and citizens on both sides of the English channel.

what if there is no agreement? It enters into unknown territory. The EU said be prepared for a scenario without an agreement, but this panorama of maximum uncertainty presumably agitaría markets, with Betist the euro and the pound sterling as victims propitiatory. Among the sectors most restless figure in the automotive industry with the european, which manufactures part of their pieces in the Uk, but its consequences go beyond. The governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, warned of its effects for the employment and the price of housing, and compared it with the crash of 2008.

The border of Ireland. The european leaders emphasized yesterday that the agreement has avoided a “border lasts” between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, one of the horses of battle of the whole negotiation. The protocol on that region british stipulates that both parties will do everything in its power to, at most, the July 1, 2020, an agreement has been reached that guarantees the free movement of goods between Ireland and Northern Ireland. If that is not possible, you could agree to extend the transition period. And if it expires the new term without solutions, the protocol provides that it will apply the “last resort solution”. This would mean that the Uk would remain within the customs union.

Rights of citizens. It is the section most stressed by the heads of State and Government: the Brexit will affect the minimum to the citizens. In particular, those who live in the Uk and to british nationals who are in other countries. The United kingdom will respect the rights of residence, work, study, family reunification or health care of the citizens of the EU who are there until the 29th of march, 2019, and of those arriving during the transitional period. The same thing will happen in the countries of the EU. In addition, the agreement prohibits the discrimination on grounds of nationality.

The bill Uk. In total, it is estimated that the cost to London is around 50,000 million euros. The uk will continue to make contributions as a partner during the next two years, although it has been retired and is not entitled to vote in the EU. The country must assume, among other things, the “outstanding commitments” or the part that corresponds to it (13%) of the pension of all the officials of the european institutions (not only yours).