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Statistics-expert in the double-interview : What distinguishes football from all other sports: chance and luck

The performance of each basketball player documented in a statistics table: made shots, Steals, Turnover, Rebounds offensive, how much percent of his free, he has throws made and much more. What will tell you these Figures, Mr. Ojeda, if you have not seen the game at all?

HIMAR OJEDA: these are the base data, called "Boxscore". There is a lot more detailed Material. After each weekend I look at these Figures, even from other teams, as well as foreign leagues. It is the first quarter tells me how a Team that has developed after the mid-term ... if You compare the player of each positions of both Teams. This gives quite a fair picture.


OJEDA: no. If one has outstanding, defended well and did not hit, you don't see. The Plus-Minus statistics can help a little. This value says how many points did the Team or by the opponents, if player X was on the floor.

BIERMANN : What I've learned in the research for my book, You need to always Pay a framework to interpret them. Statistics do not show the absolute truth. You can lead one astray.

OJEDA: came in As the 2011 "Moneyball" with Brad Pitt in the cinema, I was in Gran Canaria. Many people have spoken to me then and said: you are!

HIM: The book came out in 2003 and was called "Moneyball. To win the art“. It's the story of Billy portrays Beane, a baseball player, the Manager of the Oakland A's was, and had little money. Nevertheless, his Team has performed much better than the financial possibilities would suggest. Beanes genius idea was simply to improve with the help of statistics, the Scouting. He was the great Innovator with the Numbers and the Laptop.

OJEDA: It's Baseball, it must not be forgotten. The have statistics for everything. How often does a pitcher with the left Hand hits against a Pitcher who strikes with the right Hand. Statistics! Whole books full. But Baseball is a very static game. It's like Basketball would only consist of free throws ...

BIERMANN : ... or football from corners. The Ball is on the right with the left foot on the near post. How was the Setting in five minutes? Because you could capture any movement. Only football is terribly complex.

In a football game and 2.7 goals on average. In Basketball, there are already 200 points. 2,7 – there's not much material to discuss.

HIM: , It is recorded, in the meantime, a lot of number of passes of a player, the accuracy, ran, miles, gained two battles ... But what distinguishes football from all other sports, is totally misjudged. Luck and happiness! The two play a huge role in football. Unlike in Basketball, in Volleyball, in Handball. Football the football the next, because there are few goals scored. And with the new, more sophisticated statistics just luck and coincidence can be detected.

OJEDA: How the?

HIM: With the "expected goals". Thus, the quality of scoring chances is assessed. Dividing the game field into small units, and keeps track of the Position of a gate is like. With the base of hundreds of thousands of Games, quite accurate values can be obtained. After a counter-attack, a shot from this point takes in three percent of all cases to the gate. Point. At the end of the game you can say that the a team would have to make 3.2 goals and the other 0.8. Now the team with the lower score wins in football, but not rare. The other had maybe two post shots. Too bad.

OJEDA: Who is interested in Basketball or working, reads statistics. This is quite normal. In football, too?

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BIERMANN : I guess that 50 to 70 percent of all coaches or athletic Directors know nothing about it. It's a pity. Because football is a very unstable System. You can change seven games in a row to lose. It may be that the team kicks it in fact catastrophic. But it can also be that she has a hell of a lot of bad luck. All are terribly upset. The pressure is brutal. A glance at the Numbers might have a calming effect. Okay, we're not playing well at the Moment, but not as bad as the table suggests.

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