on Tuesday evening, members of the british parliament to vote on whether they can vouch for the brexitaftale, as prime minister, Theresa May, has negotiated the home of the EU Parliament.
Professor of political science at the University of Copenhagen Marlene Wind do not believe that the members of the british parliament on Tuesday will vote yes to the agreement, as Theresa May has spent two and a half years to negotiate the home.
- the Probability that they vote yes to brexitaftalen in the evening is very small, but it is there. All measurements are made on the outcome of the vote, shows that it is not just going to be a defeat, but a large one of its kind, says professor Marlene Wind.
the Danish policy - 14. jan. 2019 - at. 16:39 Loop after the May message: It will be a disaster
It is expected that meps will vote no to the 585 pages long brexitaftale on Tuesday evening. It becomes, as expected, so it triggers a number of scenarios for how a brexit will come to be.
Professor Marlene Wind sets out a number of scenarios for what will happen in the near future for brexit.
A solution on a no result is a so-called hard brexit. It will say that the Uk pulls out of the EU by 29. march, without that there are no agreements in place for the future.
I doubt very much that this is the solution, Theresa May choose. There are not many in this house who wants a hard brexit. Especially not when there are so many other possible scenarios, and the ones will you try first.
- A tough brexit will create too much chaos, and it, the british are not interested in, says Marlene Wind.
Choose Theresa May, to a tough brexit is the wrong solution, so she has got three days to come up with a so-called plan B.
What she could do, was to go back to Brussels and say 'help me', and so she could take a new vote in the british parliament about a week. I think she will start to ask the EU for help, and then she will probably try to get a vote, unless her defeat today will be so big that she can see that regardless of what the Brussels of intent, then it will not be able to succeed, says Malene Wind.
A ' no ' to the agreement can trigger a vote of no confidence to Theresa May and her government from the opposition leader, the president of the party, the Labour party, Jeremy Corbyn. This is something he has threatened in the past, if so the agreement should not be adopted on Tuesday.
If Jeremy Corbyn wins mistillidsafstemningen in parliament, he will get two weeks to try to form its own government. He should not have the good fortune to form the government, then that automatically printed a new general elections.
- I believe that Theresa May will do anything to avoid having to get a vote of no confidence, for it can open up for new elections. She will do everything, that it is not going to happen - as will the conservatives could lose power to Jeremy Corbyn and Labour, says the professor in EU politics.
A new general election can in any case get on the case, if it were up to Jeremy Corbyn. He has also made the proposal that the british will vote on a new government, then one can come out of the political standstill about brexit, as the european parliament is currently located in.
A solution on the whole brexitproblemet for Theresa May may be, if she chooses to print a new referendum.
- There is nothing in the way of Theresa May print a new referendum. It can be an easy way to get solved it all, that is, to ask the people whether they will stay or leave the EU. A vote will be able to give her the popular support to stay in the EU.
- It would be the strongest trump card to let the british get to have their say and then follow their wishes. Measurements show that they would like to be in the EU now.
the EUROPEAN court of justice came shortly before christmas with a gesture to the hard-tried british prime minister. The uk may well be in the EU if the politicians and the people want it. Actually the Uk did not even ask the other member states on the law to be in the european UNION, the EUROPEAN court of justice decided.
the Reason for the decision is that the brexitafstemningen from 2016 was indicative and not legally binding.
Theresa May has opened up, that she can consider to let Britain stay in the EU. She did Monday in a speech where she told that a consequence of a no-result on Tuesday night could be that she is not pulling the country out of the EU.
- I do not think that she just chooses to stop brexit. Theresa May can ask the EU to postpone the brexit in two years, and so everything can reach to change in the course of the time. There may be new politicians who choose to pull it all back, explains Marlene Wind.
the scenario, Theresa May choose for the Uk's exit from the EU, the time, the prime minister and the parliament show.