The gap is just not small. On The Contrary. The global greenhouse gas emissions have risen in the last ten years, by 1.5 percent a year. Last year, a new maximum value is reached. The amount of greenhouse gases has to be reduced according to climate scientists, in order to achieve the objectives of the Paris climate agreement, it is always greater. This is the conclusion of the "emissions Gap report", the environmental programme of the United Nations (Unep) published today. "Our collective failure to protect previously the climate , requires a strong reduction of emissions in the next few years," says the Unep Director Inger Andersen.
on average must cut emissions by 2020 up to 2030, each year, by 2.7 percent. Otherwise, the temperature rises on the earth's surface far above 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the Century – the earth is counter 3.4 to 3.9 degrees of warming. A year ago, showed the world climate Council IPCC in a report that already at average global warming of 1.5 degrees, the risk of flooding of coastal cities, and dying coral reefs, rising massively. This scenario, avert, would, according to the new Unep report, the greenhouse gases will be reduced annually by 7.6 percent.
"The damage to the climate at a warming of 2 to 2.5 degrees are much larger than 1.5 to 2 degrees," says ETH-Zurich climate researcher Reto Knutti. The temperature is since the middle of the 19th century. Century by about 1 degree increase. In three comprehensive IPCC Reports in the last twelve months, climate scientists show that the effects of climate change are already clearly visible: It does not just melt the glaciers on the continents. For example, the number and duration of heat waves in Europe, North America and Australia increased. Similarly, the number of periods of drought increases in southern Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. The area of the annually emerging Arctic sea ice, which plays an important role for the climate system in the Northern hemisphere, has become in the last 30 years, is massively smaller.
For researchers from ETH Zurich Knutti estimated in it is to act in the "urgency" of the policy and the company have not yet been properly recognized. "Even if we meet in the Unep report proposed reduction path, there is a probability of more than 30 percent, that we will miss the climate target," he says. When so much was at stake, had to be the margin of safety is higher. This means that If we want to be on the safe side, would need to be cut in greenhouse gases by 2030, even more.
The Unep report is a little optimistic. "There is no indication that the emissions in the next years, the Maximum", is it. Any delay required to later measures in accordance with still greater Reduction. The task seems hopeless already: In ten years, global emissions would have to fall more than half, to the 1.5-degree target, a 2-degree warming is to be prevented according to scientists, if the current emissions are to be reduced by about a quarter. "The potential economic Benefits of limiting global warming at 1.5 degrees, the investment is likely to achieve this goal, a minimum of four to five times outperform," wrote climate researchers in September, in an article in the journal "Science".
The previously submitted national climate plans of the Contracting States of the Paris climate agreement is not enough by far to get to anything close to the necessary reduction path. The group of the twenty most important industrialised and emerging countries emits almost 80 percent of global emissions. So far, only five countries, including Japan and the UK have established the long-term target to reduce 2050 emissions to zero, it is called in the Unep report. In the legislation, these objectives are not incorporated, however. Switzerland, too, wants to aspire to by 2050 of CO2-emissions balance to zero. The goal, however, has established only the Federal Council and has not been confirmed by Parliament.
Every five years in accordance with the Paris agreement must be the climate objectives tightened. By the end of next year, it's that time again. "The new data show that the States, cities, regions and the economy can't wait that long, it must now be responded to," says Unep Director Inger Andersen. The next opportunity for the States in a week. At the next climate conference in Madrid, you can show whether you are one of the pioneers in climate protection.
Created: 26.11.2019, 09:32 PM