"Putin and Kim inspire each other"

For decades, North Korea has threatened to turn enemy cities into a "sea of ​​flames" and has worked doggedly to build a nuclear weapons program. Experts fear that Pyongyang could now further intensify its rhetoric, following the example of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin's allusions to a possible Russian use of nuclear weapons raise concerns that such a normalization of nuclear threats could strengthen North Korean ruler Kim Jong-un.

"Putin and Kim inspire each other and make the right to nuclear attack on a peaceful neighbor routine by repeating it without repercussions," said Sung-Yoon Lee, a North Korea researcher at Tufts University in the United States UNITED STATES. “Putin's threats sound more credible given the daily bloodshed in Ukraine. But Kim's threats should not be dismissed as hot air."

North Korea has already launched a record number of more than 40 missiles this year. Most recently, state media justified the launches by simulating the use of tactical nuclear weapons in order to “wipe out” potential targets in South Korea and the United States. Kim personally oversaw all tests and subsequently spoke of a successful demonstration of his forces' advanced nuclear attack capabilities and readiness for "real war."

There is also evidence that Pyongyang plans to deploy tactical nuclear weapons on the border with South Korea. A new law allows preventive nuclear attacks under various conditions, such as when the leadership feels threatened. Although nuclear missile technology is not yet fully developed, the country is getting closer to this goal with every test. "North Korea clearly emulated Putin's approach to the war against Ukraine and used it as a way to speed up weapons development," says North Korea expert Park Won Gon of Ewha Womans University in Seoul.

Nuclear warfare weapons aim to stop advancing enemy troops in a given sector and have low penetration compared to nuclear warheads. Still, they would put scores of civilians at radiation risk in densely populated Ukraine, and possibly in Russia and elsewhere. Politically, too, the first use of nuclear weapons since World War II would have a devastating effect and would lead to rapid escalation.

The United States and its allies said they would take Putin's threats seriously. At the same time, however, they emphasized that they would not be intimidated by this and would not weaken their support for Ukraine. Even Kyiv does not want to stop its counter-offensive despite the Russian nuclear threats.

In US government circles it was said that they are currently not expecting conventional or nuclear attacks from Kim, as the North Korean head of state is following events in Ukraine. Rather, an escalation is to be expected if Kim has the feeling that Putin is getting all the international attention. He could possibly try to build up pressure with nuclear tests in order to achieve his long-term goals: an easing of Western sanctions against North Korea and a withdrawal of almost 30,000 US soldiers in South Korea.

"North Korea is following the situation (in Ukraine) more closely than anyone else," says expert Park. If Putin can use nuclear weapons without major consequences, Pyongyang will see this as a strengthening of its own nuclear doctrine.

According to Park, the North Korean nuclear threats could now be followed by further clashes with the South. The peninsula is still officially at war as both sides failed to reach a peace agreement following their 1950-1953 conflict. Park explains that the situation between India and Pakistan was similar: Here, too, tensions increased further after Pakistan acquired its own nuclear weapons.