The deadline is still far away, but the first seeds of the 2027 presidential election have been planted. Our Ifop-Fiducial survey for Le Figaro and Sud Radio reveals the first balance of power between the different political parties. First there are confirmations: less than four years before the election, Marine Le Pen would come well ahead of the first round, regardless of the Macronist opponent.
The “natural” candidate of the National Rally (RN) is in the lead with 31% to 33% of voting intentions, inflating her score of April 10, 2022 by at least 7.5 points. “This attests to an electoral structure catch-all which is similar to that of a government party. The historical weaknesses of the RN remain, but have been partially erased,” analyzes Frédéric Dabi, director general of Ifop.
Another confirmation: in the majority, only Édouard Philippe would manage to reduce the gap with the double finalist in the presidential election. With 25% voting intentions, the former prime minister appears to be best placed to carry the Macronist torch. Especially since he could rally more than three quarters (76%) of the voters of the head of state in 2022. “But he has the same weaknesses as candidate Macron: he is only at 22% among the employees and 16% in popular categories”, underlines Frédéric Dabi, for whom “uncertainty” still hangs over the succession of Emmanuel Macron.
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But everyone knows, four years from the deadline, no one is safe from a surprise. A contender could well create one: the Minister of National Education, Gabriel Attal. Tested for the first time, the 34-year-old minister is credited with 19% of the vote, placing him as the second best candidate in the presidential camp. He would thus be ahead of two government heavyweights, who do not hide their appetites: the boss of Bercy, Bruno Le Maire (18%) and the Minister of the Interior, Gérald Darmanin (16%). “One might have thought that it was only a phenomenon of popularity, but Gabriel Attal benefits from electoral credibility,” supports Frédéric Dabi.
Although left behind by the other contenders from the “central bloc”, Gérald Darmanin has jumped by 5 points since March 2023, going from 11% to 16%. Despite his appeals to the working classes, the Minister of the Interior would however only attract 9% of this electorate.
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Far behind, the right is struggling to disrupt the match which is once again looming between the RN and the presidential camp. Regardless of the identity of Emmanuel Macron's successor, Laurent Wauquiez would do slightly better than Valérie Pécresse's 4.78% in 2022. The one who cultivates the strategy of silence stagnates between 5% and 6% of voting intentions, and even loses 2 points since March 2023 in the event of a candidacy from Gérald Darmanin. “It’s less a problem of incarnation than of space between the central bloc and the nationalist bloc,” observes Frédéric Dabi.
As in 2022, Les Républicains (LR) would even be overtaken by Éric Zemmour, who obtained 7.07% of the votes in the last election. The president of Reconquest! would succeed in maintaining its electoral base by winning 6% to 7.5% of voting intentions. “Marine Le Pen’s push is not to the detriment of Éric Zemmour. This is proof that its electorate is not just a reserve of votes for the RN,” deciphers the boss of Ifop.
In the event of a new candidacy, Jean-Luc Mélenchon would remain on the left the eternal third man in the presidential election. The difference is that the leader Insoumis is having difficulty returning to his score of 2022 (22%), which allowed him to reach the second round. Whoever had benefited from the useful vote would this time achieve at best 15% of the votes. Mired in controversies since the outbreak of the war between Israel and Hamas, Jean-Luc Mélenchon loses up to 5 points in voting intentions compared to March 2023. “He is out of step with a majority of the left-wing people who no longer understands his speech,” explains Frédéric Dabi.
However, the three-time presidential candidate remains one step ahead of his left-wing competitors, including in his own camp. Polled for the first time in place of the leader of the Insoumis, the LFI deputy for the Somme, François Ruffin, obtained only 7% of the voting intentions. Perceived as a potential heir to Jean-Luc Mélenchon, he would even be surpassed by a short head by the communist Fabien Roussel (7.5%). The boss of the PCF, who has distanced himself from Nupes, would thus manage to triple his score from the last presidential election (2.28%). Neither the ecologist Marine Tondelier (1.6% to 2%) nor the socialist Olivier Faure (4% to 6%) would shake up the balance of power at the polls.