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Now the EU must show how serious it is about the Western Balkans

In the coming winter, Europe is not only threatened by a crisis in energy supplies, but also in social cohesion.

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Now the EU must show how serious it is about the Western Balkans

In the coming winter, Europe is not only threatened by a crisis in energy supplies, but also in social cohesion. There have already been protests in Prague and Leipzig; Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) warns of a European split because of the energy shortage.

Politicians are trying to prevent social unrest both within Germany and the EU - also because it would offer a welcome opportunity for third powers such as Russia or China, who would exploit any weakness in the West to divide it. A particularly critical point, however, lies not within, but in the geopolitical forecourt of the EU: the Western Balkans.

The region is vulnerable to outside influence, as the Russian attack on Ukraine has painfully revealed. Decades of failed integration of the region into the EU have left their respective populations disappointed, paving the way for anti-Western propaganda. The energy crisis will once again test the EU's ability to defend its strategic interests in its neighbourhood.

Energy bottlenecks in winter are initially not unusual in the Western Balkans, explains Engjellushe Morina from the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank. Among other things, there is a lack of the right infrastructure to meet the high demand in the cold season. But now the problem is getting worse. "Against the background of the current crisis, rising prices and scarce energy supply, the region will suffer twice," says Morina.

North Macedonia recently declared an energy emergency; likewise Kosovo, where electricity is already being rationed – in the form of planned blackouts. As Edi Rama, the Albanian Prime Minister, put it last week: "This winter will probably be the toughest we have ever experienced."

While most Balkan countries aren't overly dependent on Russian natural gas — coal makes up a large part of their energy mix — high energy costs are hurting them. According to an analysis by the World Bank in May, Albania and North Macedonia are particularly vulnerable to fluctuating prices. Although Kosovo produces more energy than it needs in summer, it is dependent on imports in winter. In Serbia, coal production has decreased significantly from the end of 2021 for various reasons, which is why the country is now dependent on more imports.

In addition, the populations in the Western Balkans find it difficult to compensate for the price increases. As early as three years ago, a third of people in North Macedonia stated that they were unable to heat their own homes adequately – a peak value in Europe. According to the report, Kosovo, Montenegro and Serbia are also among the most affected countries.

The energy crisis combined with other factors such as increased food prices, Morina fears, could "result in social unrest". Destabilizing the region runs counter to European interests. Because the Western Balkans are strategically important as a land bridge between NATO's south-eastern flank and Central Europe.

But where the EU does not show enough presence, third parties spread. The past few years have shown that. In the case of Russia, this is particularly evident at the moment, but China, as the systemic rival of the West, is also propagating an illiberal world order worldwide.

During the Corona crisis, for example, both countries focused on the Western Balkans in order to undermine trust in the EU, its institutions and Western strategies in the pandemic. That was the conclusion of a report by the EU's foreign service last spring.

Anti-Western rhetoric is working, also because many people in the Western Balkans are sobered by the faltering EU accession process. According to Morina, Russia and China do not have much room for maneuver in the energy crisis - Moscow currently has other problems and China is more interested in bilateral economic relations - but Turkey has already offered its support.

"We are doing our best to help our Balkan neighbors secure their gas needs for the winter," Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said recently. This week, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is personally visiting the region; he visits Bosnia, Serbia and Croatia. Although Turkey, as a NATO member, is actually an ally of the West, Erdogan's foreign policy solo efforts repeatedly lead to tensions in the alliance.

Now, at the latest since the Russian attack on Ukraine, the EU has recognized how important it is to bind the Western Balkans to itself - also on energy issues. For example, the countries have committed to fulfilling the requirements of the European Green Deal. Morina expects more details to be revealed in the coming weeks on how to engage and support the Western Balkans in the energy crisis.

The expert sees this as an opportunity. She refers to medium-term planned gas corridors and changes to existing routes, how gas will come to Europe - for example from the Caspian or the Mediterranean. “You cannot ignore the Balkans. He's right in the middle," she says.

The Western Balkans can also hope for help from the EU in the short term, even if it is not yet known in detail what exactly this will look like. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said last week: "We have seen that there will be help from the EU." Such support in "buying the necessary energy" is a necessity to get through the winter.

Expert Morina says it is important that efforts are not a one-way street. The Western Balkan countries must understand that it is in their own interest to be as closely integrated with the EU as possible. At the same time, the EU must begin to treat the region as part of the international community on energy issues, Morina said. This is necessary because of the geographical proximity, because of the potential - but also because of the risk that the Western Balkans poses due to attempts to influence it from outside.

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