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Is the immigration bill likely to be adopted in the Assembly as it stands?

Can the immigration bill be adopted? While the debates in public session have not yet started, Le Figaro takes stock, group by group, of the number of parliamentarians who, to date, could vote for the text resulting from the law committee of the Lower House .

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Is the immigration bill likely to be adopted in the Assembly as it stands?

Can the immigration bill be adopted? While the debates in public session have not yet started, Le Figaro takes stock, group by group, of the number of parliamentarians who, to date, could vote for the text resulting from the law committee of the Lower House .

In the Senate, Gérald Darmanin had looked after the right. In committee, this time he focused on “dealing” with the left wing of his majority. While many Macronists feared the examination of the immigration bill in the Assembly, all Renaissance deputies, including those from the left wing, voted favorably for the revised version of the text in committee. “At the moment, everyone is aligned,” confides a deputy from the left wing.

At the MoDem also, the new version of the text seems to suit all the deputies, including those from the left wing, who had indicated their “red line”, absolutely wishing to remove the abolition of medical aid from the bill. of state.

Horizons MPs have warned: the immigration bill is still “perfectable”. The president of the group, Laurent Marcangeli, hopes in particular for the reestablishment of the offense of illegal stay during the public session. However, the 30 deputies of the group would vote “all for, without exception and without qualms”, says Frédéric Valletoux, the text as it is today.

If the RN deputies remain open to a potential abstention depending on the “improvements” that could be made to the text in public session, the 88 elected officials would vote today against the bill. “We are against it, because there is still the red line with massive regularizations of illegal immigrants,” informs the secretary general of the RN group, Renaud Labaye.

There will a priori be no suspense: all the Insoumis are opposed to the text, and the 75 deputies of the group would therefore vote against.

They are the ones who will tip the scales one way or the other. For the moment, a very large majority of LR deputies are against the immigration bill as it was revised in committee. If 17 deputies had expressed in a forum their desire to approach the examination of this text in a “constructive” manner, today very few of them are speaking out favorably regarding the new version of the reform. According to our information, only two LR deputies would currently vote for: Mansour Kamardine (Mayotte) and Alexandre Vincendet (Rhône). “There are measures to tighten the conditions for granting residence permits, simplifications of procedures. Not voting for it would be deadly for the right of government. It’s preferring political politics to the interests of the country,” judges the latter.

» READ ALSO - Immigration law: Gérald Darmanin fuels LR's divisions

According to our information, only between two and five deputies could currently abstain. Among them, elected officials deemed “constructive” like Nicolas Forissier or Virginie Duby-Muller, who do not rule out voting for if the text evolves “positively” in public session. “A lot of things have been removed... Maybe I'm constructive, but I'm not naive either. The answers must be strong enough,” says the latter.

Furthermore, a number of deputies who had been rather open have for the moment shifted into frank opposition to the text. “The majority sent a clear message to the LR: “Fuck off!”,” says Stéphane Viry, for example. Thus, a very large majority of deputies - between 55 and 58 deputies - would currently vote against the text as it is written.

The socialists are in total opposition to the bill as it comes out of committee. Only the deputy for Guadeloupe Christian Baptiste, who considers the efforts made by the minister in the overseas territories laudable, confides to Le Figaro that he is not open to abstention.

All environmentalists are opposed to the immigration bill and the 23 deputies of the group are against the current version of the text.

“We are resolutely opposed to this law and will vote against it.” Tuesday morning, the communist Elsa Faucillon was firm. However, a little earlier, the national secretary of his party, Fabien Roussel, did not close the door to a potential abstention. According to our information, between one and four of the group's 22 deputies, all overseas, would consider abstaining. This would for example be the case of the deputy for Guadeloupe, Jiovanny William.

The government expects to obtain the 21 votes of parliamentarians from the Liot group (Libertés, independents, overseas and territories). But even if the deputies present in the law committee all validated the text, the game is far from won for the executive. According to our information, between 10 and 15 elected officials from the group would currently vote favorably on the version as produced by the commission. Between 4 and 10 could abstain, and between 2 and 5 plan to vote against.

The deputies Emmanuelle Ménard, Véronique Besse and Nicolas Dupont-Aignan all three confirmed to Le Figaro, they would not vote for the immigration bill as it came from the law committee.

On the other hand, David Habib, the former socialist parliamentarian, does not yet have a firm position. “I haven’t decided anything yet, I’m waiting for details,” he assures. It does not close the door to a vote for, nor to an abstention, nor to a vote against.

In total, with the current version of the text, to date, the government could only count, according to our estimates, on 269 votes in favor (294 against and 14 abstentions), in the best case scenario. And in the worst case scenario, he would only obtain 263 votes in favor (306 against and 8 abstentions). For the moment, the immigration bill would therefore have very little chance of passing if all the deputies were present at the time of the vote.

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