In the end, the new elections in Berlin could take place a year before the next federal election

The repetition of the federal elections in parts of Berlin is getting closer – at least a little. After there were multiple election mishaps in the capital on September 26, 2021, the Bundestag is due to decide on Friday on a proposal from the traffic light groups for a possible repeat election. This was preceded by numerous discussions, plan changes and taunts. After all, the political future of some MEPs may be at stake.

A member of the responsible election examination committee said that his own party had not squinted at whether it could benefit from the election repetition plans. It was different with the other parties: "They quickly had the calculator out and calculated." How would a repeat election affect the composition of the Bundestag. Who would have to worry about his mandate – and whether the left might be thrown out of the Bundestag. The motion by the SPD, Greens and FDP provides for re-elections in 431 of the 2256 constituencies – with both a first and second vote.

The members of the Election Review Committee had previously tried to determine where there had been significant voting errors, for example because ballot papers were missing or votes were still being cast after 6:30 p.m. However, they had repeatedly changed the number of voting districts in which new elections were to be held.

If the plans are passed as agreed, things could get exciting in two Berlin constituencies in particular: in Reinickendorf and Pankow. In Reinickendorf, ex-minister of state for culture and Berlin's CDU head of state Monika Grütters got the direct mandate in 2021. However, she was only a few percentage points ahead of second-placed Torsten Einstmann from the SPD. According to the traffic light plans, new elections are to be held in many constituencies in Reinickendorf; the direct mandate for the CDU could possibly be lost. In Pankow, the Green Stefan Gelbhaar won the direct mandate ahead of Klaus Mindrup from the SPD – also by a few percentage points.

A significant shift in votes would have significant consequences for the Left Party. In the federal elections, she missed the five percent hurdle, but was still able to move into the Bundestag because she got three direct mandates - two of them in Berlin. Gesine Lötzsch won the direct mandate in Lichtenberg and Gregor Gysi in Treptow-Köpenick. In both constituencies, new elections are to be held according to the traffic light plan. If the direct mandates for the Left Party were lost, it would be kicked out of the Bundestag. However, Lötzsch and Gysi were well ahead of the runners-up; According to traffic light representatives, losing their direct mandate is extremely unlikely.

It is unpredictable how polls at the time of the re-election will affect the result. However, almost all parties expect a lower turnout, which would also affect the composition of the Bundestag. According to calculations by the Federal Returning Officer for the Election Review Committee, the CDU could lose a mandate if the turnout is lower if the traffic light plan is implemented. If there had been elections in significantly more constituencies, the other parties would also have had to reckon with losses if the turnout was lower.

The Union faction has already announced that it will not agree to the traffic light proposal. "In view of the numerous and significant electoral errors that indisputably took place in Berlin, a re-election limited to individual polling districts is not sufficient," says a special vote by the CDU/CSU parliamentary group, which is available to WELT. "The coalition's proposal is neither legally convincing, nor is it suitable for regaining the lost confidence in the correctness of the parliamentary elections in Germany and especially in the federal capital."

The Union is in favor of a complete repetition of the second vote in the six constituencies contested by the Federal Returning Officer, which corresponds to a repetition in around 1,200 voting districts. "The back and forth of the last few weeks shows that the coalition is no longer concerned with legal considerations, but primarily with party-political considerations," criticizes Patrick Schnieder, chairman of the CDU/CSU parliamentary group in the committee.

Even after the vote on Friday, it is not to be expected that the back and forth will end soon: Due to the political explosiveness, almost all parties expect that the Federal Constitutional Court will ultimately decide on the repetition of the election. The result would be a significant delay. The repeat could then take place in 2024, predict representatives of the traffic light. So a year before the regular next federal election.

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