Bundeswehr Inspector General warns against too much euphoria about Ukrainian successes

Bundeswehr Inspector General Eberhard Zorn warns against too much euphoria when Germany looks at Kyiv. He currently cannot see any real counter-offensive by the Ukrainians: "I'm careful with the terms," ​​he said in an interview with the magazine "Focus", which will be published on Saturday.

Instead, he sees at most “counterattacks that can be used to win back locations or individual sections of the front, but not to push back Russia on a broad front”. Even the approaching winter will “not reduce the suffering – on the contrary”.

The Ukrainian army is acting “wisely, rarely offers a broadside and conducts operations in a sovereign and very flexible manner,” says Zorn. And “just two weeks ago I would have said that in six months the entire Donbass will be in Russian hands. Today I say: They won't make it."

But Zorn, the highest-ranking soldier in the Bundeswehr, doubts whether the Ukrainians really have the strength for a counteroffensive: "They need a superiority of at least 3 to 1."

In the interview, Zorn also reiterated his fears that Russia could open a second front and named possible attack sites: "Kaliningrad, the Baltic Sea, the Finnish border, Georgia, Moldova... There are many possibilities. Putin would have the skills. Even if around 60 percent of its land forces are tied up in the Ukraine war, the land forces and, above all, the Russian navy and air force still have uncommitted capacities. If Putin ordered a general mobilization, he wouldn't have any personnel problems either."

A major Bundeswehr conference will take place in Berlin on Thursday and Friday, at which, in addition to Zorn, Defense Minister Lambrecht and Chancellor Scholz will also give speeches.

Prosecutors have announced the establishment of investigative teams after the discovery of bodies with signs of torture in areas formerly occupied by Russia in the Kharkiv region. According to this, six bodies with signs of torture were discovered in villages recaptured during the Ukrainian counter-offensive. "We have a terrible picture of what the occupiers did, especially in the Kharkiv region," said Prosecutor General Andriy Kostin. "Cities like Balakliya, Izyum are in a row with Bucha, Borodyanka, Irpin."

During a visit to Izyum, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke of the shocking sight, but it did not surprise him. The same pictures were seen from Bucha and other areas from which the Russian soldiers were withdrawing. “The same buildings destroyed, people killed.” The bodies of civilians, many showing signs of torture, were found in Bucha, near the capital Kyiv, after the hasty withdrawal of Russian troops in late March.

Since the beginning of the offensive in Ukraine, the Russian media unanimously and tirelessly spread the Kremlin's message: everything is going according to plan. But in view of the recent humiliating setbacks for the Russian army, public criticism of the military operation has increased.

Experts, analysts, bloggers and officials recently criticized the army's actions in television programs and online networks - a wave of devastating criticism that was previously unimaginable. The Kremlin is trying to stop this wave. Those who think differently must "adhere to the laws" that punish people who "discredit the army," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov warned on Tuesday. "It's a very, very fine line, you have to be very careful here."

According to government figures, around 1.3 million refugees from Ukraine are currently living in Poland. "According to statistics, more people are going back to Ukraine recently, they are leaving Poland," Deputy Interior Minister Pawel Szefernaker told the public broadcaster Polskie Radio. At the same time, the authorities are observing internal migration of Ukrainians within Poland.

In the months after Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine began on February 24, Poland had taken in a very large number of refugees. In June, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki spoke of more than two million people who had found protection in the country.

The Kremlin describes a concept for security guarantees presented by Ukraine as a danger for Russia - and against this background once again justifies the war against the neighboring country. Ukraine is still striving for NATO membership, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, according to the Interfax news agency. "Accordingly, the greatest danger for our country remains and the reason for the necessity of the military special operation remains current, yes it is even more topical," said the 54-year-old.

On the Crimea peninsula, annexed by Russia, a court has handed down prison sentences for playing a Ukrainian song at a wedding. The court in the city of Bakhchisarai ordered six “organizers and participants of the wedding” to between 5 and 15 days in prison and fines equivalent to more than 800 euros, local media reported. The song was described in the reports as a "battle song of Ukrainian nationalists".

Shortly after the withdrawal of Russian troops, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to the liberated part of eastern Ukraine. "Our blue and yellow (flag) flies over the liberated Izyum," said the head of state on social networks. Selenskyj announced a further advance of the Ukrainian army. "We are only moving in one direction - forward and to victory," emphasized the 44-year-old. Photos showed Zelenskyy in Izyum in the Kharkiv region with soldiers of the Ukrainian army.

Pope Francis indirectly reprimands the head of the Russian Orthodox Church Kirill. Conflicts cannot be solved with power, weapons and threats, he said at the Congress of World Religions in Kazakhstan. This is only possible with encounters, dialogue and negotiations. Faith must not become a means to power.

Patriarch Kirill has backed Russia's invasion of Ukraine and sees it as a fight against what he sees as a decadent West. The Pope had agreed to talk to Kirill in Kazakhstan, but Kirill had canceled his originally planned participation.

The European Commission wants to give Ukraine seamless access to the European single market. At her annual State of the Union address to the EU Parliament in Strasbourg, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that she would travel to Kyiv on Wednesday to discuss details with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Import duties on Ukrainian exports to the EU have already been suspended. Ukraine should also be included in the European zone for roaming.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wants to travel to Kyiv today and meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy there. This was announced by the head of the German Commission on Wednesday in her speech on the state of the EU in Strasbourg. Von der Leyen said she wanted to take the opportunity "to work with Ukraine to provide seamless access to the single market - and vice versa". She wanted to discuss this "in detail with President Selenskyj".

According to a media report, against the background of the global food crisis, the Russian government is planning to increase the cost of exporting fertilizers through tariffs.

The export duty on fertilizers is intended to secure additional income of 105 billion rubles (1.75 billion euros) per year for the Russian budget, the daily newspaper Kommersant wrote on Wednesday. Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin recently lamented the Western sanctions that impeded the export of Russian fertilizers and food and thus provoked a hunger crisis in poor countries.

The proposal is explosive. With reference to the global food crisis, Russia had pushed for a relaxation of sanctions against the sector. In return for the Grains Agreement, which provides for the unblocking of Ukrainian seaports for food exports, Moscow negotiated a mitigation of sanctions that hampered the export of Russian fertilizers and food.

According to British intelligence agencies, Russia has used Iranian-made drones for the first time. "Russia is almost certainly increasing its arms purchases from other heavily sanctioned countries like Iran and North Korea while its own supplies are running low," the intelligence agencies said in the daily report. Ukraine reported the downing of one of the drones described on Tuesday.

The wife of the Ukrainian President, Olena Zelenska, will be the guest of honor at the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday to listen to the State of the European Union address.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced Selenska's visit on Twitter on Tuesday evening, adding: "The courage of the Ukrainian people has touched and inspired the world."

The Russian war in Ukraine is likely to be one of the topics on which the head of the commission will comment on Wednesday from 9 a.m. In her annual State of the EU speech, von der Leyen explains her political priorities to the European Parliament.

In future, Saxony-Anhalt's municipalities will be able to impose residence requirements for war refugees from the Ukraine under certain circumstances. This should increase planning security and better control moves within the country. The House of Interior Minister Tamara Zieschang (CDU) issued a corresponding regulation.

The condition is intended to prevent Ukrainians from moving to regions that have already taken in many war refugees. This currently applies to Halle and Magdeburg as well as the Burgenland district, the Jerichower Land district, the Salzland district and the Stendal district.

Now those counties and urban districts can impose a residency requirement that has so far taken in fewer war refugees than is provided for in a state-wide distribution key. The residence requirement is to be imposed when those affected receive a residence permit for the first time. However, it should not apply to those war refugees who already have a residence permit and want to stay in their host community.

The US government sees a new dynamic in the war with Russia in view of the military successes of the Ukrainian troops. "I think what you're seeing is certainly a shift, a momentum in Ukraine's armed forces, particularly in the north," National Security Council communications director John Kirby said in Washington on Tuesday. However, he wants to leave it up to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to decide whether a turning point has actually been reached.

When asked by reporters whether a turning point in the war had been reached, US President Joe Biden said it was difficult to say. According to journalists traveling with him, Biden emphasized that the Ukrainians had made significant progress during a visit to Wilmington in the state of Delaware. But it will be a long way.

Referring to the recent development, Kirby said: "I don't want to speak for the foreign military, but I think in the north we have seen the Russians evacuate their defensive positions and retreat." Russian troops have left their fighting positions and theirs supplies left behind. "They call it a repositioning, but it is certain that they retreated in the face of Ukrainian forces clearly on the offensive." At the same time, Kirby stressed that Russia remains at great military capability.

Referring to the fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus, Kirby said it was difficult to talk about a motivation for the renewed conflict. Russia is traditionally seen as Armenia's protecting power in the Caucasus. However, the forces of the Russian military are largely tied up because of the war of aggression that has been going on in Ukraine for six months. It is therefore possible that some leaders think that Russia is busy elsewhere, Kirby said when asked if Azerbaijan was currently taking advantage of this. "But here, too, we should be careful with speculation."

According to US intelligence services, Russia has secretly supported political parties and candidates abroad with hundreds of millions of euros. According to an intelligence report published on Tuesday, at least $300 million has been transferred from Moscow to more than two dozen countries since 2014 in order to influence national politics there. The sum mentioned is probably just “the tip of the iceberg,” a senior US government official told the AFP news agency.

Russia probably "secretly transferred more money that was not discovered," said the government representative. The report does not contain any information on which countries the donations from Russia are said to have gone to. Among other things, the Russian ambassador is said to have made several million dollars available to a presidential candidate in an unspecified Asian country.

A source familiar with the report's findings also said that Russia spent about half a million dollars supporting Albania's centre-right Democratic Party in the 2017 elections. Accordingly, parties or candidates in Bosnia, Montenegro and Madagascar are said to have been financed.

This is the story of a German who left his life in Bavaria to fight for Ukraine. Subscribe to “Close Up – The Reportage Podcast” now on Spotify, Apple Podcast, Deezer or directly to the RSS feed.