A blow to Donald Trump - and a new template for his election campaign

Already in the coming week, allegedly on Tuesday, Donald Trump is to appear in court in New York. His lawyers have announced that the 76-year-old is cooperating. The police and authorities will try not to give the ex-president a large public stage.

Trump himself would find a camera-compatible corridor in the building in Manhattan convenient. Almost two weeks ago he announced on his social media account that he would be charged and that his supporters should protest in New York. The criminal proceedings have become part of his election campaign, which is going well so far. According to polls, he is clearly leading the race for the Republican nomination for the 2024 election. The latest poll even puts him 30 points ahead of his closest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Now what he himself had advertised has happened. Donald Trump is indicted, the first former US President in history. He makes an assist with this loft. The charge was “political persecution and electoral interference”. The "enemies of America's hard-working men and women" have banded together for a "witch hunt," Trump said in a first statement. A "witch hunt that will backfire badly for Joe Biden."

The question is how much Trump can capitalize on the court case ahead of him. The first supporters gathered on Thursday evening in front of his Mar-a-Lago estate, which is located in Trump's adopted home in Florida. Demonstrators are also expected in New York.

The song "Justice for All" opened his first campaign performance last Saturday in Waco, Texas. Played on video screens and performed by men in prison for their part in the January 6, 2021 storming of the Capitol. Political prisoners in the eyes of Trump and his supporters. The narrative that Trump is the only upright fighter against the “deep state” and a “corrupt, politicized judiciary” mobilizes the right camp.

It is unclear whether this program will also catch on with voters other than his supporters in the next few months. Voters who generally lean towards Trump may be put off by the criminal proceedings and the many details to be expected from the negotiations. Especially since millions of Americans don't want to read court reports, they want to know how the next president intends to get inflation under control and keep the healthcare system running.

The media attention has already given Trump at least a financial profit. Immediately after the ex-head of state announced two weeks ago that he would appear in court in New York in a few days, his team started a new fundraising campaign. According to the Washington Post, this brought in the equivalent of almost 1.4 million euros within three days.

Meanwhile, his team has to figure out how the candidate should campaign when he also has to stand trial. On top of that, the charges now brought are by no means the only legal hurdle for Trump: three more charges could follow in the coming weeks and months, which could largely paralyze the Republican. Charges based on much more serious allegations than the Stormy Daniels case - such as Trump's possible responsibility for the storming of the Capitol or his interference in the Georgia election result.

Legally, Trump can run as a defendant and even a convicted felon and even become the 47th President of the United States. There is no provision in the US Constitution for this case. Ultimately, it will be up to American voters whether they want to make a convicted ex-president the incumbent president for the first time.

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