US strategy in Venezuela : The game with the threats

The threats remain aware of the Approximate. A "strong reaction" has threatened US national security adviser, John Bolton, the Venezuelan President, Nicolás Maduro, for the case that the self-interim head of state, Juan Guaidó called happened to her at the time of his expected return, something. The suits: "All options are on the table", as US President Donald Trump says again and again. But what does this mean in concrete terms? It is interesting to note that Bolton threatened a "strong reaction" not only the U.S. but also the international community.

Now, the announced return Guaidós will make the determination Maduros on the sample such as the United States. Maduro has declared that to its Challenger, a step that the United States, but also the EU and other States sharp would condemn. Guaidó speculation is probably precisely this: the greatest possible indignation in the event of his arrest, because he needs the escalation, in order to motivate his followers. He says himself, that would be Maduro's "last error". The only Problem is: Guaidó must hope that the "strong reaction" of the Americans is more than a big Bluff.

Not much of a page change in point of view

The US is currently rather vague on diplomatic pressure to isolate the government in Caracas. The previous sanctions are directed primarily against the state Oil company PDVSA, the Oil, the Regime financed mainly. The hope is that Maduro gives up at some point. For example, because his supporters - and especially the military - crowded. Loyalty ends, of course, often, if a Regime can no longer pay his followers. But still, it doesn't look like a mass change page. The whole issue could drag on for a while. The impact of the sanctions, however, will also hit the already suffering civilian population, more than three million Venezuelans have left their home already.

Despite all the nebulous threats seems to be the government not Trump currently a military Intervention to seriously consider. This would weaken the standing of Guaidós in the population probably rather than strengths. In addition, a military operation would endanger the cohesion of the broad coalition, which has been under the leadership of the USA on the side of the Venezuelan Opposition.

US foreign policy is The desire to make a difference

must be Guaidó for the time being, with rhetorical support pleased with how it has formulated Trumps Deputy Mike Pence in front of a little more than a week in Colombia: The US would stand so long on the side of Venezuela, "until democracy and freedom are restored, there is no way back". Pence should have made the 35-year-old interim President is also clear that the Trump set on a peaceful solution. According to the he says the. Because that would weaken the threat.